The Liga MX Apertura 2025 regular season is entering its decisive stretch, and this Sunday brings a crucial clash between Atlético San Luis and Necaxa at the Estadio Alfonso Lastras. Scheduled for 19:00 local time, this match could define the playoff hopes of the home side, while the visitors are already looking toward the end of a disappointing campaign. With both teams showing contrasting motivations, the encounter promises intensity and goals.

Atlético San Luis: Fighting to Stay in the Playoff Zone

Atlético San Luis currently sit in 10th place in the Liga MX table, holding on to a spot that could secure them a place in the postseason. Their record of 5 wins, 1 draw, and 8 defeats reflects an inconsistent season, but recent performances have shown signs of recovery. The Potosinos come into this fixture after a vital 0-1 away win against Pumas UNAM on October 23, marking their second consecutive victory following a run of three losses.

Under coach Guillermo Abascal, San Luis have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season. Their attack has been led by Pedro Galvao, who has already contributed nine goals, making him one of the standout forwards in the league. In goal, Andrés Sánchez has been a reliable presence, helping the team maintain balance between defense and attack. Another key figure is Sébastien Salles-Lamonge, who has added two goals and two assists, proving to be a creative force in midfield.

San Luis have been involved in high-scoring games throughout the campaign. In fact, Over 0.5 goals have been scored in each of their last 33 Liga MX matches, and they have gone 32 of their last 33 games without a draw. This pattern suggests that their matches rarely lack excitement or decisive outcomes. Playing at home, the Potosinos will aim to capitalize on their momentum and secure a third straight win to strengthen their playoff ambitions.

Necaxa: Playing for Pride in a Difficult Season

For Necaxa, the 2025 Apertura has been a season to forget. The team sits 17th in the standings with just 2 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, effectively out of contention for the next phase. Their latest result, a 1-1 draw against Cruz Azul on October 22, ended a four-game losing streak but did little to change their overall outlook. The Rayos have averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match, highlighting their defensive fragility.

Coach Fernando Gago has struggled to find consistency, though there have been individual bright spots. Agustín Palavecino has been one of the few positives, contributing two goals and two assists, while Cristian Calderón has shown leadership in defense despite the team’s struggles. Necaxa’s away form has been particularly concerning, with the side losing at half-time in their last five away matches and conceding heavily on the road. However, they have also been involved in open contests, as Over 0.5 goals have been scored in each of their last 20 away games.

Historically, the head-to-head record between these sides is balanced: two wins each and one draw in their last five meetings, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and conceded per team. The last encounter ended in a 0-3 victory for Necaxa in January 2025, a result that San Luis will be eager to avenge in front of their supporters.

Atlético San Luis vs Necaxa: Tactical Overview and Match Outlook

This fixture brings together two teams with very different motivations. Atlético San Luis are fighting to secure their playoff position, while Necaxa are playing mainly for pride and to end their season on a positive note. The home side’s recent improvement, coupled with their attacking efficiency, makes them slight favorites. Their ability to score consistently, combined with Necaxa’s defensive issues, suggests that this could be another high-scoring affair.

Necaxa’s defense has been vulnerable, conceding an average of nearly two goals per match, and their tendency to fall behind early could once again prove costly. San Luis, on the other hand, have shown resilience and a renewed attacking rhythm, with Galvao and Salles-Lamonge forming a productive partnership. Given both teams’ recent trends, goals are expected at both ends, and the match could follow the pattern of their previous encounters, which often featured multiple goals.

In three of the last five meetings at the Estadio Alfonso Lastras, both teams have found the net, reinforcing the likelihood of an open contest. With San Luis pushing for qualification and Necaxa seeking redemption, the stage is set for an entertaining and potentially decisive clash in the Apertura 2025.

Atlético San Luis vs Necaxa prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is Over 2.5 goals with a 66% probability. Both teams have shown attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, making a high-scoring match the most probable scenario.