The upcoming clash between AD Ceuta and Real Valladolid promises to be one of the most intriguing fixtures of the 22nd round in LaLiga Hypermotion. Both teams arrive at this encounter with contrasting dynamics, yet with the same need to bounce back after suffering defeats in their previous outings. The match will take place at the Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, where Ceuta will look to capitalize on home advantage to continue their impressive debut season in the second tier of Spanish football.

AD Ceuta’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Ceuta come into this game after a narrow 2-1 loss away to Málaga on January 11, a result that ended their four-match unbeaten streak. Prior to that setback, the newly promoted side had collected two wins and two draws, showing remarkable consistency for a team adjusting to life in LaLiga 2. Their current record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats places them comfortably in 10th position with 32 points, just two shy of the playoff zone.

At home, Ceuta have been particularly solid, with Under 3.5 goals recorded in each of their last 11 matches at the Murube. This suggests a disciplined defensive structure and a pragmatic approach when playing in front of their fans. Across their last five fixtures, Ceuta have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, maintaining a positive goal balance that reflects their competitive edge. Their season-long averages (1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match) further underline their balanced style of play, capable of grinding out results even against stronger opponents.

• Ranking: 10th in LaLiga 2


• Last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat


• Average goals scored: 1.1 per match


• Average goals conceded: 1.2 per match


• Under 3.5 goals in last 11 home games

For a club that has just earned promotion, Ceuta’s mid-table position is a remarkable achievement. Their ability to compete with established teams in the division has made them one of the pleasant surprises of the season. A victory here would not only consolidate their top-half status but also bring them closer to the playoff contenders.

Real Valladolid’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Real Valladolid travel to Ceuta in search of redemption after a heavy 3-0 defeat to Leganés on January 11. That loss extended their winless run to four matches, with three defeats and one draw during that stretch. The Pucelanos have struggled to find consistency, collecting just one win in their last five outings. Their attacking output has been modest, averaging 1.0 goal scored per game, while conceding 1.8 goals on average in the same period.

Over the course of the season, Valladolid’s record stands at 6 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, placing them 13th in the standings with 25 points — only two above the relegation zone. This is far from the expectations of a team that began the campaign with promotion ambitions. Their defensive fragility and lack of cutting edge in attack have been key factors behind their recent slump.

• Ranking: 13th in LaLiga 2


• Last 5 matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats


• Average goals scored: 1.0 per match


• Average goals conceded: 1.1 per match (season average)


• Last result: 0-3 defeat vs Leganés

Valladolid’s away form remains a concern, as they have struggled to impose themselves on the road. Their previous head-to-head meeting with Ceuta ended in a 3-0 victory back in August 2025, but given their current form, repeating that performance will be a challenge. The visitors must rediscover their defensive discipline and attacking sharpness if they are to avoid slipping further down the table.

Ceuta vs Real Valladolid Analysis and Prediction

This fixture brings together two sides with very different trajectories. Ceuta have exceeded expectations, showing resilience and tactical maturity, while Valladolid are struggling to regain momentum after a difficult run of results. The home side’s confidence, combined with their solid defensive record, could make the difference in a match that is likely to be closely contested.

Historically, Valladolid hold the upper hand, having won the only previous meeting between the two teams (3-0 in August 2025). However, Ceuta’s current form and home advantage suggest that this encounter could produce a different outcome. With both teams averaging around one goal per match this season, a low-scoring affair seems plausible, though Ceuta’s recent attacking consistency gives them a slight edge.

According to the latest data, the win probabilities stand at: Ceuta 48%, Draw 26%, and Valladolid 26%. The Both Teams To Score – Yes market is balanced at 53%, while the Over/Under 2.5 goals line is evenly split at 50%. These figures reflect the uncertainty surrounding the match, but also highlight Ceuta’s marginal advantage.

BetMines Prediction: Based on the current form and statistical outlook, the prediction leans towards a home win (1) for Ceuta, with a 48% probability. The hosts’ stability and momentum could prove decisive against a Valladolid side still searching for consistency.