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Prediction published on Nov 28, 2025 5:03 PM by Dario in England - Premier League | Modified on Nov 28, 2025 5:03 PM
The Premier League title race takes centre stage this Sunday as Chelsea and Arsenal lock horns at Stamford Bridge in a clash that could have major implications at the top of the table. The Gunners currently lead the standings, while the Blues sit just behind them in second place after twelve rounds. With both sides in excellent form and coming off impressive European victories, this London Derby promises to be one of the most anticipated fixtures of the season.
Chelsea approach this encounter full of confidence after a commanding 3-0 win over Barcelona in the Champions League, a result that extended their unbeaten streak to six matches in all competitions. During this run, they have kept three consecutive clean sheets and scored at least twice in five of those games. Their attacking rhythm has improved significantly, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded across their last five outings.
At home, the Blues have been formidable, winning five of their last six matches at Stamford Bridge. However, they have struggled against Arsenal in recent years, failing to win any of their last six home meetings with the Gunners (three draws and three defeats). Despite this, Enzo Maresca’s men have shown resilience, having not trailed at half time in their last sixteen home fixtures and winning the first half in eleven of their last fifteen at the Bridge.
In terms of personnel, Pedro Neto has stepped up in the absence of Cole Palmer, contributing to five goals in his last five league appearances. Liam Delap could be handed a start after scoring in midweek, while Reece James is expected to return at right-back following Malo Gusto’s early substitution against Barcelona. The Blues will, however, be without Romeo Lavia, Levi Colwill, Dario Essugo, and Mykhaylo Mudryk, who remains suspended.
Arsenal continue to impress under Mikel Arteta, maintaining their unbeaten run across all competitions with a superb 3-1 victory over Bayern Munich in the Champions League. That result extended their streak to sixteen matches without defeat (fourteen wins and two draws), during which they have kept eleven clean sheets. In the Premier League, the Gunners have recorded nine wins, two draws, and just one loss, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game.
Defensively, Arsenal remain the most solid side in the league, boasting an expected goals against (xGA) of just 0.52 per 90 minutes. They have also been consistent travellers, unbeaten in their last seven away matches and keeping five clean sheets in that span. Historically, they have dominated this fixture, remaining unbeaten in their last seven encounters with Chelsea and winning three of the last five.
Arteta’s squad depth continues to be tested, but there are positive signs. Gabriel Martinelli, Noni Madueke, and Martin Ødegaard have all returned to contention, while Gabriel Magalhães, Viktor Gyökeres, Kai Havertz, and Gabriel Jesus remain sidelined. The manager’s cautious approach to team news leaves some uncertainty, but Arsenal’s collective strength and tactical discipline have been key to their success so far.
This London Derby brings together two of the most in-form teams in Europe. Chelsea have rediscovered their rhythm under Maresca, combining defensive solidity with attacking flair, while Arsenal continue to set the standard with their balance, pressing intensity, and clinical finishing. The Blues will look to exploit their home advantage and the creativity of Neto and Eze, but breaking down Arsenal’s compact defensive structure will be a major challenge.
Historically, this fixture has been tight and low-scoring. Both meetings last season produced fewer than three goals, and given the current defensive form of both sides, another cagey affair could be on the cards. Arsenal’s ability to control possession and limit chances against elite opposition gives them a slight edge, especially considering their unbeaten record against Chelsea in recent years. The Gunners’ composure under pressure and their efficiency in transition could prove decisive once again.
The most likely outcome is an Arsenal win (2) with a 45% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 26%, while a Chelsea win (1) stands at 29%.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Chelsea
Arsenal
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
3
7
5
5
2.5
4
6
6
4
3.5
8
2
10
0
4.5
9
1
10
0