The 25th round of Serie A brings an intriguing clash between Como and Fiorentina, scheduled for Saturday, February 14, 2026. The match at the Sinigaglia Stadium promises to be a key moment for both sides, as the hosts aim to strengthen their European ambitions while the visitors fight to escape the relegation zone. The two teams come into this encounter with very different moods and objectives, making this fixture one of the most anticipated of the weekend.

Como’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Como approach this match in excellent shape, both in Serie A and in the Coppa Italia. Earlier this week, they achieved a memorable victory over Napoli in the cup quarter-finals, prevailing on penalties against the reigning champions. That result has boosted confidence in Cesc Fabregas’s squad, who are now semifinalists for only the second time in their history. In the league, Como have been remarkably consistent, sitting sixth in the table with a record of 11 wins, 8 draws, and just 4 defeats. Their average of 1.6 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded per match highlights their balance between attack and defense.

In their last five Serie A fixtures, Como have collected three wins and two draws, scoring an average of 2.6 goals per game while conceding just 0.4. Their defensive solidity has been a key factor, with six clean sheets in the last eight league outings. The team also shows great composure in the first half, having avoided defeat before halftime in 21 of their last 22 matches. At home, they remain particularly strong, unbeaten at halftime in 14 consecutive matches at the Sinigaglia.

• Como are unbeaten in their last 8 matches (5 wins, 3 draws).


• They have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their last 8 Serie A games.


• At least one team failed to score in the second half in 34 of Como’s last 35 matches.


• Under 0.5 goals were recorded in 4 of their last 16 Serie A matches.

These numbers confirm that Como are a disciplined and efficient side, capable of managing games with maturity. Even though fatigue from midweek commitments could influence their performance, the home advantage and recent momentum make them clear favorites.

Fiorentina’s Recent Form and Key Stats

On the other hand, Fiorentina continue to struggle in the lower part of the table. The Viola currently occupy 18th place, with only three wins from 24 league matches. Their season has been marked by inconsistency and defensive fragility, as shown by the fact that they have conceded at least one goal in 21 of their last 22 matches. The team’s average of 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game reflects their difficulties at both ends of the pitch.

In their most recent outing, Fiorentina drew 2-2 with Torino, extending their winless streak to four matches across all competitions. Their last five games have produced one win, one draw, and three defeats, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. Despite a brief positive run at the start of 2026, the team has once again lost momentum, and their defensive issues remain unresolved.

• Fiorentina have lost at halftime in their last 3 Serie A matches.


• Over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half of their last 15 matches.


• They have kept a clean sheet only 3 times in 24 league games.


• Fiorentina’s last 12 away matches have all seen goals in the second half.

In addition to their poor form, Fiorentina face fitness concerns. Several players remain doubtful, and the team’s lack of defensive stability continues to cost them valuable points. Their away record is particularly worrying, and visiting a confident Como side will be a major challenge.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

The recent history between these two sides clearly favors Como. In fact, they have already beaten Fiorentina twice this season — a 2-1 league victory in September and a 3-1 win in the Coppa Italia on January 27. Overall, Como have won three of the last four meetings, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding just 1.0. These results underline their ability to exploit Fiorentina’s defensive weaknesses.

From a tactical standpoint, Como’s strength lies in their compact shape and quick transitions, while Fiorentina often rely on individual creativity to find breakthroughs. The hosts’ defensive discipline and efficiency in front of goal could once again make the difference. Given Fiorentina’s tendency to concede in almost every match, the home side’s attacking players will likely find opportunities to strike.

However, Como must remain cautious. The physical toll from their midweek cup match could affect their intensity, and Fiorentina’s desperation for points might push them to take more risks. Still, the balance of form, confidence, and recent head-to-head results all point toward another positive outcome for the Lariani.

Como vs Fiorentina Prediction

Considering all the available data, BetMines algorithms indicate a clear advantage for the home side. The most likely outcome is a Como win (1) with a probability of 54%. The draw (X) follows at 26%, while an away win (2) is estimated at 21%. The statistical trends also suggest a tight match, with Under 2.5 goals slightly favored at 54% probability.

Como vs Fiorentina prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 54% probability.