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Prediction published on May 21, 2025 9:14 AM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on May 23, 2025 12:40 PM
Friday’s Serie A finale will be decisive in determining whether Inter or Napoli celebrate winning the Scudetto: it would be Inter's second league title, while Napoli could claim their second in three years. The final verdict hinges on the outcome of the two simultaneous matches: Como vs Inter and Napoli vs Cagliari. As things stand, Napoli top the table with 79 points, followed by Inter on 78—meaning a win might not even be enough for the Nerazzurri. It's worth noting that if both teams finish level on points (for instance, with an Inter draw and a Napoli loss), a one-off playoff would decide the title. Last Sunday, Inter missed their chance to overtake Napoli after a dramatic 2-2 home draw against Lazio. Simone Inzaghi’s men gave up a lead twice, conceding a last-minute penalty converted by Pedro (who scored both goals), after a Bisseck handball. The decision infuriated Inzaghi, who was sent off and will miss the season finale from the bench. Despite their stunning performances in the Champions League semi-finals against Barcelona, which secured them a place in the May 31 final, Inter have shown understandable signs of fatigue in a packed season with constant fixtures. Against Lazio, they were again without Lautaro Martinez, their captain and star striker, though he might return to the squad for the Como game—ideal for regaining match fitness ahead of the Champions League Final against Paris Saint-Germain. Still, while victory is the only acceptable result, beating Como may prove trickier than expected. Cesc Fabregas' side has been the season’s biggest surprise. Already assured of a top-ten finish in their first year back in Serie A, Como are unbeaten in over two months. The Larians, who are eager to finish strong in front of their home fans, have already demonstrated their ability to topple top sides—most notably in February, when they beat Napoli, indirectly aiding Inter in the title race.
Como head into this decisive clash in excellent shape, unbeaten in their last eight matches, with six wins and two draws. In their most recent outing, they drew 1-1 with Hellas Verona, conceding in the second half to Lazovic after taking the lead through French midfielder Caqueret. Fabregas’ men have shown consistent attacking intent, scoring first in five of their last six matches.
Como have earned 49 points so far, with a record of 13 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses, averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per match. At home, they've won three straight matches—against Torino, Genoa, and Cagliari. Overall, they haven't lost at the Sinigaglia Stadium since a 1-2 defeat to Juventus on February 7, followed two weeks later by their shock 2-1 win over Napoli.
Inter have won just two of their last five Serie A fixtures (1-0 vs Hellas Verona and 0-2 vs Torino), with the remaining three yielding two losses—against Bologna and Roma—and a 2-2 draw with Lazio. Including their Champions League matches, though, Inter remain unbeaten in five, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
Simone Inzaghi’s side have opened the scoring in each of their last five matches, though they've been pegged back in three. In four of those five games, they also led at half-time.
After 37 rounds, Inter sit on 78 points, courtesy of 23 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses. Thuram and company boast Serie A’s best attack with 77 goals scored (2.08 per match), while their defense is the third-best, tied with Roma, with 35 goals conceded. Away from home, their form has been shaky: just two wins in their last eight (three draws and three defeats).
In the last three meetings between these sides—including the reverse fixture that ended in a 2-0 win for Inter—the Nerazzurri have always won without conceding. However, Fabregas’ Como is a completely different team from the one that visited the San Siro earlier this season, significantly strengthened during the January transfer window.
The hosts have been prolific at the Sinigaglia, scoring in every home match since December. This season, they’ve given several top teams a hard time, beating Napoli, Roma, and Fiorentina, and earning a draw against Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico.
Inter travel to Como with a clear mission: take all three points and hope for a favorable result in the Napoli vs Cagliari fixture. Despite fatigue from a grueling multi-competition campaign, the Nerazzurri will be fully focused. The only confirmed absentee is Pavard, while Lautaro Martinez and Frattesi are expected to be available from the bench.
As for the Como vs Inter prediction, based on the BetMines algorithm, we can expect an open game with goals on both ends.
COMO (4-3-3): Reina; Vojvoda, Goldaniga, Kempf, Valle; Caqueret, Perrone, Da Cunha; Nico Paz, Cutrone, Strefezza. Coach: Cesc Fabregas
INTER (3-4-2-1): Sommer; Bisseck, De Vrij, Carlos Augusto; Darmian, Calhanoglu, Asllani, Dimarco; Zalewski, Correa; Taremi. Coach: Simone Inzaghi
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Como
Inter
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
0
10
1.5
4
6
0
10
2.5
5
5
4
6
3.5
7
3
6
4
4.5
7
3
7
3