After a turbulent start to the Serie B season, both Empoli and Sampdoria find themselves in crisis mode and have already opted for managerial changes in an attempt to reverse their fortunes. The Tuscan side dismissed Pagliuca and appointed Alessio Dionisi, while the Genoese club turned to the duo Gregucci–Foti following the brief tenure of Donati. The upcoming clash at the Stadio Carlo Castellani on October 28, 2025, is shaping up as a crucial test for both teams, each desperate to climb away from the lower reaches of the table.

Empoli’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Empoli currently sit 14th in Serie B with 10 points, far below preseason expectations for a side that aimed to challenge for promotion. Their latest outing ended in a 2-1 defeat to league leaders Modena on October 24, a result that extended their inconsistent run. Over their last five matches, Empoli have recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. The team’s defensive fragility remains a major concern, having conceded at least one goal in each of their last 19 matches.

Despite their struggles, Empoli’s attack has shown flashes of promise. The team has scored in nearly every match this season, with Over 0.5 goals occurring in 39 of their last 40 fixtures and Over 1.5 goals in the last 14. Forwards Popov and Shpendi have been bright spots, each netting four goals so far. Dionisi’s challenge will be to solidify the back line without sacrificing the attacking rhythm that has kept Empoli competitive in most games. Playing at home could be a key advantage, as the Castellani crowd often provides the energy needed to push the team forward.

Sampdoria’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Sampdoria’s situation is even more precarious. The Blucerchiati are 19th in the standings with just six points, mirroring the struggles of last season when they narrowly avoided relegation. Their most recent match, a 1-1 draw against Frosinone on October 25, offered a small sign of improvement under the new coaching duo, following a heavy 3-1 defeat to Entella. However, the road to recovery remains long and uncertain.

The Genoese side’s record over the last five matches is identical to Empoli’s — 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss — but their away form is alarming. Sampdoria have failed to win any of their last 20 away matches in all competitions and are winless in their last 18 away games in Serie B. They have also lost at half-time in their last three league fixtures and have not led at the break in 19 of their last 20 games. Offensively, they average just 1 goal per match, while conceding 1.6 on average. Veteran striker Massimo Coda remains their main attacking threat, also with four goals this season, but he often finds himself isolated due to the team’s lack of creativity in midfield.

Defensively, Sampdoria have shown slight improvement compared to the early weeks, but lapses in concentration continue to cost them points. The team’s inability to maintain focus in key moments has been a recurring theme, and unless addressed quickly, it could prove fatal in their fight for survival.

Empoli vs Sampdoria: Tactical Overview and Match Analysis

This fixture has all the makings of a tense relegation battle. Both sides are under immense pressure to deliver a win, and both have recently undergone managerial changes that could influence their tactical setups. Empoli are expected to take the initiative at home, relying on their attacking trio and the energy of the Castellani crowd. Sampdoria, on the other hand, will likely adopt a more cautious approach, focusing on compactness and counterattacks through Coda’s finishing ability.

Historically, the head-to-head record between these teams is balanced, with two wins each and one draw in their last five meetings. Their most recent encounter ended 1-1 in May 2023, a result that reflects the evenly matched nature of this rivalry. Given both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities and their tendency to concede early, goals could come from either side, even if the overall quality of play remains scrappy.

Empoli’s attacking consistency and home advantage make them slight favorites, but Sampdoria’s desperation and the potential “new manager effect” could make this a closer contest than the table suggests. The match is likely to hinge on which side can better manage defensive errors and capitalize on set pieces or individual brilliance.

Empoli vs Sampdoria Prediction by BetMines

The most likely outcome is a home win (Empoli) with a 42% probability. The Draw follows at 31%, while a Sampdoria win stands at 27%.

Given both teams’ recent scoring patterns and defensive fragility, a low-scoring affair is also anticipated. The data suggests a strong tendency toward Under 2.5 goals, which carries a 67% probability.