The A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn will host the clash between Estonia and Israel on Friday, June 6, for Matchday 3 of Group I in the FIFA World Cup 2026 UEFA Qualifiers. These two teams meet again just weeks after their first-leg encounter on March 22, where Israel claimed a 2-1 home victory. That win remains Israel’s only success in the group so far, as they later lost to Norway, who currently top the standings with a perfect record. Norway, however, will face a much tougher challenge against Italy, making their group stage debut after the Nations League campaign. Estonia have also picked up three points from their first two matches, thanks to a 3-2 away win against Moldova, who remain bottom of the group with zero points. From a standings perspective, this match in Tallinn looks like a potential six-pointer between two teams aiming to challenge for second place, hoping to capitalize on any slip-ups from group favorites Norway and Italy. Israel, whose only World Cup appearance came in 1970, appear to have the edge. In addition to their favorable head-to-head record (undefeated against Estonia), they have shown solid performances even against strong opposition, highlighted by a 0-0 draw away to France. Moreover, due to well-known security reasons, Israel have become accustomed to playing all of their "home" matches at neutral venues, which could help them handle away fixtures more comfortably. Estonia, on the other hand, have never qualified for a major international tournament. While their win against Moldova was encouraging, they still go into this match as underdogs. Realistically, with Italy and Norway in the same group, both teams’ chances of qualifying remain very slim.

Estonia Recent Form & Key Stats

Estonia come into this match after a 3-2 away win over Moldova, snapping a four-game winless streak that included three defeats and one draw. In their last five matches, they’ve averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded per game, having allowed at least one goal in their last three.

Under head coach Jurgen Henn, Estonia have particularly struggled at home. In the UEFA Nations League, they suffered losses to Sweden (0-3) and Slovakia (0-1), managing a win only against Azerbaijan. They failed to score in two of those three games, and since mid-2023, they’ve consistently conceded at least once in every home match.

Israel Recent Form & Key Stats

After opening Group I with a 2-1 win over Estonia, Israel were beaten 2-4 by Norway, despite keeping the match competitive until Sørloth’s 59th-minute goal shifted the momentum. Over their last five matches, Israel have recorded two wins, two defeats, and one draw, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded per game.

Israel, managed by Ran Ben Shimon, have played all their “home” games in Hungary for nearly two years now. In true away fixtures, they haven’t won in their last three Nations League outings, losing heavily to Italy (4-1) and Belgium (3-1), and drawing 0-0 with France. Their last official away win dates back to November 21, 2023, when they beat Andorra 2-0.

Estonia vs Israel Prediction & Tactical Overview

Estonia and Israel meet again after the first-leg clash, where Eli Dasa scored the winner in a 2-1 Israeli victory. The head-to-head record clearly favors Israel, who also won previous meetings in 2006 and 2007 with scores of 0-1 and 4-0, respectively.

Israel have been consistent in attack, scoring in nine consecutive matches, including friendlies. Even in away matches, they’ve performed well offensively—scoring in tough venues like Belgium and Italy before the recent goalless draw in France.

Estonia, on the contrary, have only secured wins recently against lower-tier teams such as Azerbaijan and the Faroe Islands. Against stronger sides like Sweden and Slovakia, they’ve been defeated—often without scoring. Discipline is also a concern: Estonia received one red card in each of their first two qualifiers.

Key players to watch include Dor Turgeman, Israel’s prolific striker with 20 goals this season for Maccabi Tel Aviv, and Rauno Sappinen, a mainstay for Flora Tallinn who recently found the net against Moldova.

Our Estonia vs Israel prediction suggests a tightly contested match, much like the first leg, but with Israel favored to win due to superior technical quality, better form, and a strong historical edge.

• Estonia vs Israel prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 1 at 23%.
  
  
• Estonia vs Israel prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign X at 25%.
  
  
• Estonia vs Israel prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 2 at 52%.

Estonia vs Israel Predicted Lineups

ESTONIA (4-2-3-1): Igonen; Saliste, Kuusk, Paskotsi, Schjonning-Larsen; Poom, Ainsalu; Yakovlev, Kait, Simyavskiy; Sappinen. Coach: Jurgen Henn

ISRAEL (5-4-1): Peretz; Abada, Shlomo, Lemkin, Nachmias, Solomon; D.Peretz, E.Peretz, Jaber, Gloukh; Turgeman. Coach: Ran Ben Shimon