After an impressive 3-0 win over Italy, Norway looks to solidify its lead in Group I as it travels to face Estonia, stuck on three points after three games and coming off a home defeat to Israel. The team led by Ståle Solbakken showed its full potential against the Azzurri, emerging as a serious contender for the top spot in the group—and with it, direct qualification for the next World Cup, a tournament Norway hasn’t reached since 1998. With three wins in three matches, Haaland and his teammates sit atop the group with maximum points, boasting a +10 goal difference and a high-powered attack fueled by goals from Haaland and Sørloth. While they’ve played two more matches than Italy, Norway already seems to have one hand on the group lead, displaying impressive athleticism and clinical finishing. Heading into the trip to Tallinn, the goal is to maintain this winning momentum, secure a fourth consecutive victory, and keep both Israel (six points) and Italy at bay. Estonia, on the other hand, saw its early enthusiasm fade after a 3-1 home loss to Israel. Prior to that, the Baltic side had secured a valuable 3-2 win over Moldova, partially redeeming their opening 2-1 defeat to Israel. Still, the signs remain worrying: Estonia has lost three of its last four home matches and will need nothing short of a sporting miracle to take points from this red-hot Norwegian side.

Estonia Recent Form and Key Stats

Estonia remains in a delicate period. Over their last five matches in all competitions, the Baltic side has earned just one win, alongside three defeats and a draw, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Their latest outing—a 1-3 home defeat to Israel—once again exposed defensive shortcomings: despite taking the lead through Kait in the 31st minute, they were quickly overrun.

Overall, Estonia has won just one of its last six official fixtures, with four losses and one draw. Their home form is equally uninspiring: the last two matches in Tallinn ended in defeats to Sweden and Israel.

Another worrying trend is their defensive performance at home: Estonia has conceded at least one goal in each of its last ten home games, a structural weakness that could prove fatal against a well-oiled and explosive Norwegian attack.

Norway Recent Form and Key Stats

Norway heads into this fixture in top form. Solbakken’s side is on a five-game winning streak, averaging an impressive 4.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per match. Their attacking power is their greatest asset: in the first three rounds of Group I, Haaland and company scored ten goals and conceded just two, both in their 4-2 away win over Israel.

Their away record is equally strong: Norway has won its last three matches on the road, comfortably beating Slovenia, Moldova, and Israel, with a combined tally of 13 goals scored and only 3 conceded.

The only away setback in their last eight matches came last October, when they suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat in Austria—a rare slip in an otherwise solid and steadily improving journey, underlining their ambition to return to the global stage after years in the shadows.

Estonia vs Norway Prediction and Tactical Overview

Facing this version of Norway, who just dismantled Italy 3-0, will be extremely tough for Estonia—even with the home advantage. The numbers are clear: Solbakken’s squad averages over three goals per game in these World Cup qualifiers, while Estonia’s defense has been breached in all three of their group matches so far.

Against the Azzurri, the Scandinavian side displayed overwhelming physical dominance, with several players—Antonio Nusa in particular—able to break the game open with pace and skill. The three goals scored could have been more if not for a Berge shot hitting the post, and a second-half drop in tempo aimed at conserving energy for the Tallinn trip.

Norway is not just offensive firepower, though: they offer balance and intensity in midfield. Thorsby continues to be a key presence in both ball recovery and build-up play, while Odegaard orchestrates the attack with his usual class and vision, reaffirming his status as one of the team’s technical leaders.

Given Norway's solidity and Estonia's defensive issues, the Estonia vs Norway prediction clearly favors the visitors, with an away win the most likely outcome.

Moreover, considering both teams’ recent trends and styles of play, an Over 2.5 total goals match is a reasonable expectation, with Norway ready to assert their attacking dominance once again.

• Estonia vs Norway prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts a match with Over 2.5 goals at 73%.
  
  
• Estonia vs Norway prediction from the BetMines Algorithm predicts a match with Under 2.5 goals at 27%.

Predicted Lineups for Estonia vs Norway

ESTONIA (4-2-3-1): Hein; Shjonning-Larsen, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Salitse; Soomets, Shein; Yakovlev, Kait, Sinyavskyi; Tamm. Manager: Henn.

NORWAY (4-3-3): Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem, Moller Wolfe; Odegaard, Berge, Thorsby; Nusa, Haaland, Sorloth. Manager: Solbakken.