The Premier League’s Matchday 23 concludes with an intriguing clash between Everton and Leeds United at Hill Dickinson Stadium. The hosts currently sit in 11th place, while the visitors occupy 16th, separated by seven points. Both sides come into this fixture on the back of morale-boosting victories, and with their respective ambitions still alive, this encounter promises to be a tight and tactical battle. Everton will look to extend their strong home record, while Leeds aim to complete a rare league double over their opponents.

Everton’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Everton have endured a mixed run of results in recent weeks, but their latest 1-0 triumph away to Aston Villa has reignited belief within the squad. That victory, their first of 2026, lifted them to 32 points and kept them within touching distance of the European qualification spots. Over their last five matches, the Toffees have recorded two wins, two draws, and one defeat, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their overall Premier League record stands at 9 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, with a balanced goal ratio of 1.1 scored and 1.1 conceded per match.

At home, Everton have been difficult to beat, losing just once in their last 16 league fixtures at Hill Dickinson Stadium. However, they have struggled to dominate early, having lost at half time in 6 of their last 10 home matches. Interestingly, Over 0.5 goals have been scored at half time in each of their last 10 home games, suggesting that early action is likely. Despite this, at least one team has failed to score before the break in each of Everton’s last 21 matches, highlighting their cautious approach in the opening stages.

In terms of personnel, Everton welcome back Iliman Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye after their successful AFCON campaign with Senegal, adding valuable experience and composure to the midfield. Thierno Barry, the match-winner against Villa, continues to impress with four league goals, while Jack Grealish remains a doubt due to a foot injury. The Toffees will also be without Michael Keane, who serves the final game of his suspension, and several others remain sidelined through injury.

Leeds United’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Leeds United have shown significant improvement after a difficult start to the season. Their recent 1-0 victory over Fulham marked their second consecutive win, following a 3-1 FA Cup success against Derby County. Over their last five matches, Leeds have achieved two wins, two draws, and one defeat, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. In the Premier League, their record stands at 6 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match.

The Whites have been particularly strong in the second half of games, with Over 0.5 goals scored after the break in 18 of their last 20 matches. Their resilience and improved organization have been key to climbing out of the relegation zone, now sitting five points clear of danger with 25 points. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been instrumental in their resurgence, scoring eight of his nine league goals in the last ten matches. The forward, facing his former club, will be eager to make an impact once again. Lucas Nmecha, who scored the winner in the reverse fixture, remains a potent option from the bench with five goals to his name.

Leeds’ defensive structure has tightened considerably, and their ability to frustrate opponents has been a hallmark of their recent performances. With fewer injuries than their hosts, they will look to exploit Everton’s absences and maintain their upward momentum. Long-term injuries to Dan James and Jaka Bijol persist, while Anton Stach remains unavailable due to a muscular issue.

Everton vs Leeds United Analysis and Prediction

Historically, this fixture has been closely contested, with Everton holding a slight edge in recent meetings (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). The last encounter ended 1-0 in favor of Leeds, and recent trends suggest another low-scoring affair. In fact, no team has scored more than one goal in the last three head-to-head matches. Both sides have shown defensive discipline, and with Everton missing key attacking players, goals may again be at a premium.

Everton’s home advantage and defensive consistency make them difficult to break down, but Leeds’ current form and confidence could tilt the balance. The visitors’ attacking efficiency, combined with their ability to stay compact, gives them a realistic chance of securing a positive result. Expect a tactical battle, with both teams prioritizing structure over risk-taking.

• Everton average 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match this season.


• Leeds United average 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match.


• Under 2.5 goals has occurred in 56% of matches involving these teams.


• Win probabilities: Everton 35%, Draw 28%, Leeds United 38%.

Given these numbers and the recent performances, a tight, low-scoring contest appears most likely. Everton’s defensive resilience and Leeds’ pragmatic approach suggest that neither side will dominate offensively. The Toffees will rely on their home form, while Leeds will look to capitalize on counterattacks and set pieces.

Everton vs Leeds United prediction by BetMines:
Under 2.5 goals with 56% probability.