The FA Cup third-round clash between Everton and Sunderland promises to be a tense and tactical battle as both sides look to bounce back from disappointing midweek results. Everton will host the match at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, marking the second meeting between the two teams this season and their first cup encounter since 2017. With both clubs struggling for consistency in recent weeks, this fixture offers a valuable opportunity to regain momentum and confidence.

Everton’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Everton approach this FA Cup tie after a 1-1 draw against Wolverhampton Wanderers on January 7, a result that left mixed feelings among supporters. Despite earning a point, the Toffees finished the game with nine men following two red cards, which will significantly affect their squad depth for this match. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with only one win in their last six outings across all competitions. During that run, they have lost three times and failed to score in three matches, averaging just 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

In the FA Cup, Everton have shown strength at home, winning at half time in six of their last ten matches in the competition. Historically, they have also dominated this fixture, remaining unbeaten in their last four meetings with Sunderland, winning three of them. The Toffees’ defensive record at home has been solid, keeping clean sheets in two of their last four home games, and they will aim to replicate that resilience here.

However, Everton’s attacking options are limited. The absence of key players such as Iliman Ndiaye, Idrissa Gueye, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall — all crucial contributors to their goal involvement — has reduced their offensive threat. Injuries to Jarrad Branthwaite, Seamus Coleman, and Carlos Alcaraz further complicate matters, leaving the manager with few alternatives in both defense and midfield. Despite these setbacks, Everton’s home advantage and historical dominance over Sunderland could prove decisive.

Sunderland’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Sunderland enter this match after a heavy 3-0 defeat to Brentford on January 7, ending their five-match unbeaten streak. That loss exposed some of their defensive vulnerabilities and highlighted their ongoing struggles in front of goal. Over their last five matches, the Black Cats have recorded four draws and one defeat, scoring an average of just 0.4 goals per game while conceding 1.0. Their lack of cutting edge in attack has been a recurring issue, particularly away from home, where they are winless in six consecutive matches, losing three and failing to score in four.

Statistically, Sunderland’s matches have been low-scoring affairs. Under 3.5 goals have been recorded in 38 of their last 40 games, and in 33 of their last 35 matches, at least one team failed to score in the first half. This trend suggests a cautious approach and limited attacking output, especially on the road. In the FA Cup, they have also struggled early in games, losing at half time in their last three appearances in the competition.

On the positive side, Sunderland’s squad situation is improving. Several players who were away at the African Cup of Nations — including Reinildo Mandava, Arthur Masuaku, and Noah Sadiki — are expected to return. Bertrand Traore could also feature after Burkina Faso’s elimination, providing a potential boost in attack. However, Wilson Isidor remains sidelined, and his absence continues to limit their offensive options. Given their recent scoring record, Sunderland will likely focus on defensive organization and counterattacks to frustrate Everton.

Everton vs Sunderland Tactical Overview

This FA Cup tie is shaping up to be a tight and tactical contest. Both teams have struggled to find the net consistently, and their recent statistics point toward a low-scoring encounter. Everton’s depleted squad will likely prioritize defensive stability, especially after recent disciplinary issues, while Sunderland’s conservative approach away from home could make for a cautious first half.

Historically, Everton have had the upper hand in this fixture, and their home advantage could once again tilt the balance. Sunderland’s inability to score regularly on the road — combined with Everton’s solid defensive record at home — suggests that chances may be few and far between. The Toffees will aim to capitalize on set pieces and moments of individual brilliance, while Sunderland will rely on discipline and quick transitions to create opportunities.

Given the patterns from both sides, a match with limited goalmouth action seems likely. Everton’s recent home games and Sunderland’s away form both point toward a contest decided by fine margins rather than attacking flair.

BetMines Prediction: Everton vs Sunderland

Everton vs Sunderland prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 59% probability.

With both teams struggling in front of goal and recent trends showing a high frequency of low-scoring matches, the most probable outcome is a game featuring fewer than three goals. Everton’s home advantage and Sunderland’s defensive tendencies reinforce this expectation, making the Under 2.5 goals selection the most likely scenario for this FA Cup encounter.