On Thursday, October 9, at the Helsinki Olympic Stadium, Finland hosts Lithuania in a crucial clash that could heavily influence their chances of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. After five matchdays, the two nations sit third and fourth in Group G with 7 and 3 points respectively. The hosts remain fully in contention for second place, just three points behind Poland and the Netherlands – though the latter still has a game in hand. Jacob Friis’ side must therefore secure all three points to approach the next, extremely tough, encounter against the Netherlands on October 12 with confidence. Lithuania, on the other hand, appears out of the race for second place and seems more focused on a direct battle with Malta to avoid finishing last in the group. On paper, Finland is the clear favorite, but they must stay focused against Edgaras Jankauskas’ side, which, despite inconsistent results, has often shown good defensive solidity and fighting spirit.

Finland's Recent Form and Key Stats

In their last outing on September 7, Finland suffered a 3-1 defeat away to Poland, with Hannover striker Benjamin Källman scoring a late consolation goal. Previously, the Eagle-Owls had narrowly lost 1-0 in a friendly against Norway, confirming their recent struggles.

After five Group G matches, Finland has collected 7 points from 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their attack has shown decent consistency, averaging 1.2 goals per game, but the defense remains their main weakness, conceding 1.6 goals on average.

Among the positives is the 2-1 home win against Poland in their most recent match in Helsinki, a result that ended a four-game home losing streak (against Ireland, England, Greece, and the Netherlands).

Lithuania's Recent Form and Key Stats

Lithuania is going through a particularly difficult period: the Baltic nation has not won an official match since June 2024, a drought that’s starting to weigh heavily both on the field and mentally. In their most recent World Cup qualifying game, they suffered another setback, losing 3-2 at home to the Netherlands.

After five games, the numbers tell a clear story: only 3 points, coming from 3 draws and 2 losses. The main issue remains their attack, averaging just 1 goal per game, while the defense, though far from perfect, has performed slightly better than Finland’s, conceding 1.4 goals per match.

Their away form is worrying: Lithuania hasn’t won in five official away matches, recording 4 defeats and 1 draw. Moreover, they’ve failed to score in their last four away fixtures, including a 5-0 friendly loss to Denmark on June 10.

BetMines Prediction: Finland vs Lithuania

According to BetMines’ algorithm, the prediction for Finland vs Lithuania clearly favors the home side. Finland has a 47% chance of winning (1), while Lithuania’s victory probability stands at 27%, just one point higher than a draw (26%).

The Eagle-Owls’ higher chances stem from their stronger performances so far in Group G, where Jacob Friis’ men have proven more competitive and consistent, sitting only three points behind Poland, the current second-place team.

As for goals, BetMines expects a tactical and balanced match, with Under 2.5 goals favored at 53%, and the “both teams to score – No” outcome reaching 52% probability.

All data suggests a tight and hard-fought contest, where Finland could edge out a narrow win, capitalizing on their home advantage and Lithuania’s attacking struggles.

Predicted Lineups Finland vs Lithuania

FINLAND (4-3-3): Joronen; Alho, Tenho, Ivanov, Uronen; Lod, Karinen, Suhonen; Antman, Pohjanpalo, Keskinen. Coach: J. Friis

LITHUANIA (5-4-1): Gertmonas; Upstas, Girdvainis, Utkus, Armalas, Lasickas; Sirgedas, Vorobjovas, Gineitis, Dolznikov; Paulauskas. Coach: E. Jankauskas.