France and Iceland will face each other on Tuesday, September 9, at the Stade de France in Saint Denis (Paris) in a direct clash that will determine which team will take the lead in Group D of the UEFA Qualifiers for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Both teams sit at 3 points after the first round, where they defeated Ukraine and Azerbaijan respectively. France is chasing its second consecutive victory to create an early gap and secure direct qualification as soon as possible. Once the ticket to the 2026 World Cup is secured, Les Bleus will finally aim to avenge the runner-up finish three years ago, when they lost the final against Argentina on penalties. Iceland arrives in Paris after demolishing Azerbaijan 5-0, but they know that against the World Cup runners-up it will be difficult to even snatch a draw. Their main goal will be damage control, keeping an eye on goal difference, which could be decisive in the battle with Ukraine for second place and a playoff spot for the World Cup.

France's recent form and key statistics

France confirmed the pre-match predictions by winning 2-0 away against Ukraine in the Group D opener. Les Bleus went ahead after just 10 minutes with Olise’s goal and sealed the win in the 82nd minute thanks to Mbappé. The only negative note of the match was Dembele’s injury: the Paris Saint-Germain forward could face a long spell on the sidelines.

In their last five matches, France recorded three wins and two defeats, averaging 2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Among their best recent results, it’s worth mentioning the 2-0 victory over Germany in the UEFA Nations League third-place playoff.

Deschamps’ men are unbeaten in their last three home games: two wins against Croatia and Belgium (both 2-0) and a 0-0 draw with Israel. At the Stade de France, scoring has become increasingly difficult for visitors: Maignan and teammates kept a clean sheet in four of their last five games played in Saint-Denis.

Iceland's recent form and key statistics

Iceland had no problems in their Group D debut, winning 5-0 against Azerbaijan and collecting their first three points. Although the match was one-sided, it left a concern ahead of the clash with France: Gudmundsson was forced off due to injury after scoring the temporary 4-0 goal.

Despite the low difficulty of the match against Azerbaijan, the victory was important for Iceland after losing their previous three official matches against Kosovo (in the Nations League relegation playoff) and Wales.

Away form remains a problem: Iceland lost three of their last five games on the road. Arnar Gunnlaugsson’s next target is to restore consistency in away fixtures. Their last away win dates back to November 16, 2024: a 2-0 victory over Montenegro in the Nations League with goals from Oskarsson and Johannesson.

France vs Iceland prediction and tactical overview

As World Cup runners-up, France should have no problems securing three points at home against Iceland and taking a decisive step toward direct qualification for the 2026 World Cup.

The gap between the two teams looks too wide to expect anything different from a French win. According to the BetMines algorithm, a home win (1) has a 78% probability, while Iceland’s chances are only 7%.

Looking at alternative betting markets, the feeling is that Maignan and his defense could keep another clean sheet, as in the last two meetings with Iceland, which ended 1-0 and 4-0 in favor of Les Bleus.

• France vs Iceland prediction by BetMines: both teams to score with 39% probability
  
  
• France vs Iceland prediction by BetMines: at least one team not to score with 61% probability

Predicted lineups France vs Iceland

FRANCE (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kounde, Konate, Upamecano, Digne; Tchouameni, Kone; Ekitike, Olise, Barcola; Mbappe. Coach: Didier Deschamps

ICELAND (3-4-3): Olafsson; Palsson, Ingason, Gretarsson; Thorsteinsson, Thordarson, Johannesson, Ellertsson; Haraldsson, Gudjohnsen, Gudmundsson. Coach: Arnar Gunnlaugsson