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Hellas Verona
0 - 1
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AC Milan
Prediction published on Apr 17, 2026 4:01 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Apr 17, 2026 4:01 PM
The upcoming Serie A clash between Hellas Verona and AC Milan at the Bentegodi promises to be a crucial encounter for both sides, albeit for very different reasons. The home team are fighting to keep their survival hopes alive, while the visitors are looking to consolidate their position in the top three and secure Champions League qualification. With the season entering its decisive phase, both clubs will be under pressure to deliver a strong performance and reverse their recent negative trends.
Hellas Verona come into this fixture in a precarious position, sitting 19th in the Serie A standings with only 18 points. Their recent form has been disappointing, with four defeats in their last five matches, including a 2-1 loss to Torino on April 11, 2026. The team’s attacking struggles have been evident, averaging just 0.7 goals per game this season while conceding 1.7 on average. Despite showing occasional flashes of resilience, Verona’s inability to maintain defensive solidity has cost them valuable points throughout the campaign.
In their last five outings, Verona have managed only one win, scoring an average of 0.6 goals and conceding 1.4. Their home form has also been inconsistent, and the lack of late-game concentration has been particularly damaging — the team has conceded 18 goals after the 76th minute this season, including seven in stoppage time. These lapses have often turned potential draws into defeats, leaving the club on the brink of relegation.
Historically, Verona have struggled against Milan, failing to win any of their last ten meetings. The head-to-head record paints a bleak picture: five consecutive defeats, with an average of 0.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match. The last time Verona managed to beat Milan in Serie A dates back several seasons, and the current form suggests that breaking that streak will be a monumental task.
AC Milan approach this match from a very different perspective but with their own set of concerns. The Rossoneri are currently third in the Serie A table with 63 points, yet their recent performances have raised questions about consistency. They suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at home to Udinese on April 11, 2026, marking their third loss in the last four games. This poor run has seen their once comfortable lead in the top four race shrink, putting pressure on them to respond immediately.
Across their last five matches, Milan have recorded two wins and three defeats, scoring an average of 0.8 goals while conceding 1.4. Their season-long statistics remain strong overall — 18 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game — but the recent dip in form highlights a worrying decline in attacking efficiency. The team’s conversion rate of big chances has dropped to just 33.7%, and their expected goals (xG) tally of 52.83 compared to 47 actual goals scored shows a clear underperformance in front of goal.
Despite these issues, Milan’s record against Verona remains impeccable. They have won all of their last ten Serie A meetings with the Gialloblù, scoring 22 goals and conceding only six. Moreover, Milan have triumphed in each of their last six visits to the Bentegodi, keeping three clean sheets in that span. These numbers underline their dominance in this fixture and suggest that they will enter the match as clear favorites.
This fixture pits one of Serie A’s most struggling attacks against one of its most disciplined defenses. Hellas Verona will likely rely on a compact shape and quick transitions, hoping to exploit any defensive lapses from Milan. However, their lack of creativity and late-game vulnerability could once again prove costly. The absence of key players such as Serdar, Bella-Kotchap, and Lovric further limits their options, forcing the coach to depend on a narrow 3-5-2 setup with limited attacking depth.
AC Milan, on the other hand, will aim to regain confidence after a difficult run. Their attacking duo of Pulisic and Leão will be crucial in breaking down Verona’s defense, even though Leão has yet to score at the Bentegodi in Serie A. The visitors’ superior technical quality and historical dominance make them strong favorites, but they must avoid complacency and rediscover their clinical edge in front of goal.
Given the statistical trends, a low-scoring game is possible. The BTTS – No market appears favorable, as Milan have kept clean sheets in several of their recent wins against Verona, while the hosts have struggled to find the net consistently. Additionally, the Under 2.5 goals trend aligns with both teams’ recent scoring patterns — Verona’s lack of attacking output and Milan’s current inefficiency in converting chances.
Hellas Verona (3-5-2): Montipò; Edmundsson, Nelsson, Frese; Belghali, Akpa Akpro, Gagliardini, Bernede, Bradaric; Bowie, Orban.
AC Milan (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Leão.
Hellas Verona vs AC Milan prediction from BetMines: AC Milan win (2) with 64% probability. The visitors’ superior form, historical dominance, and attacking depth make them the clear favorites to secure all three points at the Bentegodi.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Hellas Verona
AC Milan
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
5
5
5
5
2.5
8
2
6
4
3.5
10
0
8
2
4.5
10
0
8
2