On Monday, October 13, in Reykjavík, Iceland and France face off in one of the most anticipated games of Matchday 4 in Group D of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers. Didier Deschamps’ team, sitting at the top with a perfect record after three rounds, continues its march toward winning the group, which would grant them direct qualification to the next World Cup without needing to go through the playoffs. If France wins against Iceland and Ukraine slips up against Azerbaijan, Les Bleus could even secure mathematical qualification with two games to spare. However, Iceland—currently third with 3 points—needs a positive result to keep their hopes alive of overtaking Ukraine, who are second with just one point more. In the event of a defeat combined with a Ukrainian victory over Azerbaijan, a very possible scenario, things would get extremely complicated for Gunnlaugsson’s men, who dream of reaching their second-ever World Cup after their only appearance in 2018.

 

Iceland's Form and Key Statistics

In their last match, played on October 10, Iceland suffered a heavy 3-5 home defeat against Ukraine, allowing the Yellow and Blues to overtake them in the standings. Among the hosts, Albert Gudmundsson stood out, scoring a brace on his return from injury after missing the September fixtures.

After three Group D games, Gunnlaugsson’s men have collected only 3 points—coming from a single win over Azerbaijan—while suffering defeats against France and Ukraine. So far, Iceland have proven unbalanced, averaging 3 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.

Their home form is also concerning: in their last four matches in Reykjavík, they have recorded three losses and one win, with an average of 2.75 goals scored and 3 conceded per game.

 

France's Form and Key Statistics

In their latest match on October 10 at the Stade de France, France comfortably defeated Azerbaijan 3-0 thanks to goals from Kylian Mbappé, Adrien Rabiot, and Florian Thauvin, who made his national team return after six years. For Les Bleus, it was their sixth consecutive victory in World Cup qualifying matches.

The two-time World Champions lead Group D with 9 points, having won all three of their games so far. While the attacking quality of Mbappé and his teammates is unquestionable—with an average of 2.33 goals scored per game—the real surprise has been their defensive solidity, with Mike Maignan conceding only once, in the reverse fixture against Iceland.

Away from home, France are coming off two straight 0-2 wins, against Ukraine and Germany. Overall, in their last five away games, they have achieved three wins and two defeats, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match.

 

Iceland vs France Prediction by BetMines

Given the dominance shown so far by Didier Deschamps’ team in Group D, BetMines’ prediction clearly favors another French victory: the away win (2) is estimated at 58% probability, while the home win (1) and draw (X) stand at 19% and 23%, respectively.

The head-to-head record also supports France, who have won their last three meetings against Iceland, averaging 2.3 goals scored and only 0.3 conceded per match. The last encounter between the two sides, played on September 9, ended 2-1 for France thanks to goals from Mbappé and Barcola after Iceland had taken an early lead through Andri Gudjohnsen.

Based on these stats, BetMines predicts that both teams could score (BTTS) with a 54% probability, and that the match is likely to see over 2.5 total goals with a 57% chance.

Therefore, while France remain clear favorites to win, all signs point toward an entertaining, hard-fought, and exciting match.

 

Probable Lineups Iceland vs France

ICELAND (4-3-3): Olafsson; Palsson, Ingason, Gretarsson, Ellertsson; Gudmundsson, Johannesson, Haraldsson; Magnusson, Bjarkason, Thorsteinsson. Coach: A. B. Gunnlaugsson.

FRANCE (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, T Hernandez; K Thuram, Rabiot; Coman, Olise, Ekitike; Mateta. Coach: D. Deschamps.