The penultimate round of the 2025 Brasileirão brings a crucial clash at the bottom of the table as Juventude host Santos at the Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Caxias do Sul on Wednesday, December 3. While the home side have already been mathematically relegated to Serie B, the visitors are still fighting to secure their top-flight status, making this encounter decisive for their survival hopes. For Juventude, pride is all that remains to play for, whereas Santos know that a victory could virtually guarantee their stay in the elite of Brazilian football.

Juventude’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Juventude’s season has been one to forget. The team’s relegation was confirmed after a 1-1 draw against Bahia in the previous round, a result that left them with just 34 points from 36 matches (9 wins, 7 draws, and 20 defeats). Their defensive record has been particularly poor, conceding 65 goals so far — one of the worst in the league. Despite a slight improvement under coach Thiago Carpini, who took over in August, the team’s limitations and numerous injuries made it impossible to avoid the drop.

At home, Juventude have struggled to impose themselves, even though they have managed to score in most of their recent matches. In fact, over 0.5 goals have been scored in the first half of their last 10 home games in Serie A, showing that their matches often start with early action. However, their defensive frailties have cost them dearly, and motivation will be low now that their fate is sealed.

Carpini faces several absences for this fixture. Caíque and Igor Formiga are suspended, while Lucas Fernandes, Wilker Ángel, Peixoto, and Gilberto are sidelined through injury. The coach is expected to line up with a three-man defense featuring Luan Freitas, Rodrigo Sam, and Marcos Paulo, with Nenê orchestrating play behind the forwards Rafael Bilu and Gabriel Taliari.

Santos’ Recent Form and Key Stats

In contrast, Santos arrive in Caxias do Sul full of confidence after a resounding 3-0 victory over Sport Recife in the last round, a result that lifted them to 16th place with 41 points. Under the guidance of Juan Pablo Vojvoda, who took charge in August, the Peixe have shown significant improvement, especially in high-pressure matches. The team has gone four games unbeaten, and their recent performances have been boosted by the return of Neymar, who starred against Sport despite a knee issue.

Santos’ attacking numbers have improved, averaging 1.6 goals scored per game in their last five matches, while conceding just one per match. However, their away form remains inconsistent, as they have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 12 away fixtures. On the other hand, over 1.5 goals have been scored in all of those 12 away games, suggesting that their matches tend to be open and entertaining.

Vojvoda will have almost his full squad available, with only Gonzalo Escobar missing due to a thigh injury. The coach is expected to maintain the same lineup that performed so well against Sport, with Gabriel Brazão in goal, Igor Vinícius, Adonis Frías, Zé Ivaldo, and Souza forming the back line. In midfield, Willian Arão and João Schmidt provide balance, while Neymar operates centrally behind Álvaro Barreal, Guilherme, and striker Tiquinho Soares.

Juventude vs Santos: Match Analysis and Tactical Overview

Despite being close in the standings, the two teams are in completely different mental states. Juventude, already relegated, have little to fight for and will likely approach the match with a more relaxed attitude. Santos, on the other hand, are desperate for points and have shown renewed energy and tactical discipline under Vojvoda. The visitors’ attacking trio, led by Neymar, could exploit Juventude’s fragile defense, which has been leaking goals all season.

Historically, Santos have had the upper hand in this fixture, winning three of the last five meetings, including a 3-1 victory earlier this season. The Peixe’s recent momentum, coupled with Juventude’s lack of motivation, makes the visitors clear favorites. However, Juventude’s home crowd might still push their team to fight for pride, potentially making the first half more competitive before Santos’ superior quality takes over.

Probable Lineups Juventude vs Santos

JUVENTUDE (3-4-1-2): Jandrei; Luan Freitas, Rodrigo Sam, Marcos Paulo; Reginaldo, Caique, Mandaca, Marcelo Hermes; Nenê; Rafael Bilu, Gabriel Taliari. Coach: Thiago Carpini.

SANTOS (4-2-3-1): Gabriel Brazão; Igor Vinícius, Adonis Frías, Zé Ivaldo, Souza; Willian Arão, João Schmidt; Álvaro Barreal, Neymar, Guilherme; Tiquinho Soares. Coach: Juan Pablo Vojvoda.

Juventude vs Santos Prediction by BetMines

The most likely outcome is a Santos win (2) with a 38% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 27%, while a Juventude win (1) stands at 36%.