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Prediction published on Jan 29, 2026 4:09 PM by Dario in England - Premier League | Modified on Jan 29, 2026 4:09 PM
The Premier League weekend continues with an intriguing clash at Elland Road as Leeds United host league leaders Arsenal. The visitors are looking to extend their advantage at the top of the table, while the home side aim to build on their recent improvement and move further away from the relegation zone. With both teams showing attacking intent in recent weeks, this fixture promises to be a lively encounter full of energy and goalscoring opportunities.
Leeds United enter this match sitting 16th in the Premier League standings, six points clear of the relegation zone. Their recent form has been encouraging, with only one defeat in their last five league matches (two wins, two draws, one loss). The Whites drew 1-1 away at Everton on January 26, a result that extended their unbeaten run to three games. Over their last ten league fixtures, Leeds have collected 15 points, ranking them sixth in the form table for that period.
At home, Leeds have been particularly resilient. They have not trailed at half time in any of their last 17 home matches, a sign of their growing defensive stability. Their attacking output has also improved, averaging 1.8 goals scored per game across their last five fixtures. However, they have also conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match, suggesting that while they are dangerous going forward, they remain vulnerable at the back.
Historically, Leeds have struggled against Arsenal, losing each of their last five head-to-head meetings and conceding an average of 3.2 goals per game in those encounters. Their last victory over the Gunners dates back to 2003, and they will be eager to end that long winless streak. Encouragingly, Leeds have seen over 0.5 goals scored in the second half in 19 of their last 21 matches, indicating that their games often come alive after the break.
Leeds’ attacking hopes may rest on Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who has struggled to find the net recently after a strong finish to 2025. The potential returns of Daniel James and Gabriel Gudmundsson could provide a timely boost, though the absence of defender Jaka Bijol remains a setback for their back line.
Arsenal travel to Yorkshire as Premier League leaders, holding a four-point advantage at the top. Their season record of 15 wins, 5 draws, and 3 defeats underlines their consistency, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded per match. The Gunners have not lost in 31 of their last 33 matches, a remarkable run that highlights their resilience and quality.
After a 3-2 defeat to Manchester United last weekend, Arsenal bounced back midweek with a 3-2 Champions League victory over Kairat. Despite some defensive lapses in recent games, they remain one of the most balanced sides in the league. Their away form has been particularly impressive, boasting the best record in the division with six wins from eleven away fixtures and an unbeaten run of seven on the road.
Arsenal have not trailed at half time in their last 14 matches, often controlling games from the outset. They have scored in 31 of their last 33 fixtures, showing their attacking consistency. However, both teams have found the net in nine of their last fifteen Premier League matches, suggesting that while Arsenal are prolific, they can be exposed defensively at times.
With several key players expected to return to the starting lineup after midweek rotation, Arsenal will look to reassert their dominance. Their challenge will be to maintain defensive discipline against a Leeds side that has shown renewed attacking confidence at home.
This fixture brings together two teams with contrasting ambitions but similar recent trends in terms of scoring. Leeds United have become a tough side to beat, drawing six of their last ten league games, while Arsenal are seeking to end a three-match winless run in the Premier League. The Gunners’ attacking power and away record make them favourites, but Leeds’ home resilience and second-half scoring pattern suggest they will not go down easily.
Given the statistics, a high-intensity match with chances at both ends is expected. Arsenal’s strong away form and Leeds’ determination to extend their unbeaten home streak could produce an open contest. The hosts will rely on their energy and pressing to disrupt Arsenal’s rhythm, while the visitors will look to exploit spaces on the counter and through their creative midfielders.
Historically, this fixture has produced goals, and with both sides averaging over one goal per game this season, another entertaining encounter seems likely. Leeds’ defensive absences could tilt the balance slightly in Arsenal’s favour, but the home side’s fighting spirit should ensure a competitive battle throughout.
Leeds United vs Arsenal prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 51% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Leeds United
Arsenal
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
1
9
1.5
4
6
5
5
2.5
5
5
6
4
3.5
7
3
10
0
4.5
10
0
10
0