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Prediction published on Jan 10, 2026 10:01 PM by Dario in England - FA Cup | Modified on Jan 10, 2026 10:01 PM
Liverpool turn their focus to the FA Cup as they welcome Barnsley to Anfield for a third-round clash that revives memories of one of the competition’s most famous upsets. Eighteen years have passed since the Tykes stunned the Reds on Merseyside, and while the gap between the two clubs has widened since then, the romance of the cup ensures that nothing can be taken for granted. Liverpool, currently among the Premier League’s top sides, are overwhelming favourites, but Barnsley will arrive with belief and a sense of history on their side.
The Reds enter this fixture in solid form, unbeaten in their last ten matches across all competitions. Their most recent outing was a goalless draw against Arsenal, a result that extended their run of five wins and three draws in the last eight games. According to the data, Liverpool have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five matches, underlining their defensive consistency even amid an ongoing injury crisis.
In the FA Cup, Liverpool have been particularly strong at home, having won at half time in their last three home matches and avoided defeat at half time in their last 17. Their matches tend to come alive after the break, with over 0.5 goals scored in the second half in 20 of their last 21 home fixtures. Despite missing key players such as Conor Bradley, Wataru Endo, and Mohamed Salah, the Reds’ depth allows them to remain competitive. Youngsters like Rio Ngumoha could be given a chance to shine as manager Arne Slot looks to rotate his squad.
Historically, Liverpool have struggled against Barnsley in this competition, losing their only previous FA Cup meeting 2-1 back in 2008. However, with a 62% win probability and home advantage, the Merseyside giants are expected to dominate possession and create numerous scoring opportunities.
Barnsley approach this tie as underdogs but with a respectable record in the FA Cup this season. They have won both of their matches in the competition so far, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Their latest league result was a 1-1 draw against Wigan Athletic, a match that extended their winless streak to four in League One. Overall, their last five fixtures show one win, one draw, and three defeats, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded.
Defensively, Barnsley have been vulnerable, having conceded at least one goal in 37 of their last 40 matches. They also tend to start slowly, losing at half time in their last three away games. However, their attacking intent remains evident, with over 0.5 goals scored in the second half in each of their last 21 matches. Forward Davis Keillor-Dunn has been their standout performer, netting 13 goals this season, including two in the FA Cup. He will once again lead the line, supported by David McGoldrick and Patrick Kelly.
Despite being 57 places below Liverpool in the English football pyramid, Barnsley’s cup form and attacking approach suggest they could still pose problems, especially if the hosts field a rotated lineup. Their ability to find the net in both FA Cup ties this season will give them confidence heading into this daunting trip to Anfield.
This encounter promises to be a fascinating contrast between Liverpool’s Premier League quality and Barnsley’s lower-league resilience. The Reds’ recent matches have often been tight, with only two of their last ten featuring under 0.5 total goals. However, their attacking rhythm tends to improve after halftime, a trend mirrored by Barnsley’s own second-half scoring record. This could lead to an open and entertaining contest once the initial nerves settle.
While Liverpool’s injury list may force Arne Slot to rely on fringe players, the home side’s superior technical ability and tactical discipline should still give them the upper hand. Barnsley, meanwhile, will look to stay compact early on and exploit any defensive lapses through quick transitions. The visitors’ main challenge will be maintaining concentration against a side that rarely drops points at home in cup competitions.
Given both teams’ tendencies to score after the break and the attacking mindset expected from Liverpool, goals at both ends appear likely. The Reds’ defensive absences could open the door for Barnsley to find the net, even if the Premier League side ultimately prevails.
Liverpool vs Barnsley prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 57% probability.
With Liverpool’s attacking depth and Barnsley’s proven ability to score in the FA Cup, this tie could deliver goals for both sides. The Reds remain favourites to progress, but the visitors’ fighting spirit and recent scoring form suggest they won’t go down quietly. Expect an entertaining FA Cup clash at Anfield, with both teams likely to find the back of the net.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Liverpool
Barnsley
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
0
10
4
6
2.5
4
6
6
4
3.5
6
4
8
2
4.5
8
2
10
0