After being eliminated in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals by Germany, Luciano Spalletti's Italy is ready to turn the page. The Azzurri make their debut in Group I of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers — set to take place across the United States, Mexico, and Canada — with a tough opponent: Norway, who sit atop the group with maximum points after two matches. The Norwegians got off to a flying start in the group, convincingly defeating Kazakhstan and Israel, scoring nine goals and showcasing their attacking strength. The strike partnership of Erling Haaland and Alexander Sørloth is among the most dangerous in world football, but what's even more encouraging for head coach Ståle Solbakken is the variety of goalscorers in the squad — a clear sign of a well-rounded and threatening team. The clash with Italy will be Norway's first home match of the group stage, and they'll be looking to make the most of home advantage to solidify their lead. A win would put the Scandinavians nine points ahead of the Azzurri — albeit with two more matches played. For Italy, a positive result would immediately pile pressure on their main rivals and help put the disappointment of the Nations League exit behind them. Despite several key absences in defense, Spalletti can count on a squad that has shown character on the road in recent months. Memories are still fresh of the second-half comeback attempt against Germany, as well as a brilliant 3-1 win in France last November. The encounter at Oslo's Ullevaal Stadion — regardless of outcome — will be the first of two likely decisive fixtures for group supremacy, determining who qualifies directly for the World Cup and who must go through the dreaded playoffs, which have haunted Italy in recent years.

Norway Recent Form and Key Stats

Norway head into this crucial match against Italy in top form. Coach Ståle Solbakken's side has recorded four straight wins, backed by impressive numbers that underline their attacking prowess: 18 goals scored and only 3 conceded.

Their World Cup qualifying campaign in Group I has started in ideal fashion, with two comprehensive away victories: 5-0 against Moldova and 4-2 in Israel, putting them at the top of the table with maximum points from two matches.

Norway’s biggest strength is clearly their attack, led by the fearsome duo of Haaland and Sørloth, but also supported by a dynamic and creative midfield. Making the Azzurri's trip to Oslo even more dangerous is the home advantage: in their last three home matches in the UEFA Nations League, Norway defeated Kazakhstan, Slovenia, and Austria, scoring 10 goals and conceding just once.

Italy Recent Form and Key Stats

Italy enter their Group I opener looking to reverse a worrying trend: Spalletti's men haven't won in their last three outings, a run that began with a 3-1 loss to France in November, followed by a two-legged Nations League quarter-final against Germany (1-2 loss and 3-3 draw away).

The Azzurri’s last victory dates back to November 14, 2024, when they beat Belgium 1-0 away thanks to a goal from Sandro Tonali.

Despite recent struggles, Italy can take confidence from their strong away form. Since being knocked out in the Round of 16 at EURO 2024, they've won three of their last four Nations League away matches — defeating France, Israel, and Belgium, and drawing in Germany — with an average of 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.

Norway vs Italy Prediction and Tactical Overview

After an impressive start to Group I of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, Norway prepare to host Italy in what promises to be one of the group’s most thrilling and decisive matches. Sitting at the top with six points from two games, Solbakken’s men will be aiming to maintain momentum in front of their home fans.

Key players to watch include Erling Haaland, who netted 31 goals this season despite a challenging year with Manchester City, and Alexander Sørloth, who scored 24 goals in his debut season with Atlético Madrid. Supporting them are talents like Martin Ødegaard, a crucial figure at Arsenal, and Leo Østigård, a defensive leader growing in importance for both club and country.

Italy, on the other hand, face some uncertainties — particularly in defense. Injuries to Buongiorno and Calafiori, plus the absence of Acerbi due to personal reasons, leave the backline vulnerable. There's also concern over the physical and mental freshness of players like Bastoni and Barella, both just off a Champions League final loss with Inter.

Both teams have been prolific in front of goal. Norway have scored 18 times in their last four matches, while Italy have found the net in all recent away games, including challenging fixtures in France and Germany.

Norway vs Italy Prediction: expect an entertaining, back-and-forth game with at least three total goals. Both sides have attacking quality and defensive uncertainties, which should result in an open, high-scoring contest.

• Norway vs Italy prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts a match with Over 2.5 goals at 55%.
  
  
• Norway vs Italy prediction from the BetMines Algorithm predicts a match with Under 2.5 goals at 45%.

Norway vs Italy Predicted Lineups

NORWAY (4-3-3): Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Ostigard, Wolfe; Odegaard, Berge, Thorsby; Sorloth, Haaland, Schjeldereup. Coach: Solbakken

ITALY (3-4-2-1): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Coppola, Bastoni; Zappacosta, Barella, Rovella, Udogie; Frattesi, Tonali; Retegui. Coach: Spalletti