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Prediction published on Nov 26, 2025 7:03 AM by Dario in Europe - Europa League | Modified on Nov 26, 2025 7:03 AM
After a stunning 3-0 victory at Anfield, Nottingham Forest return to European action with renewed confidence as they host Malmö FF in the Europa League. The match, scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025, marks the fifth round of the group stage, with both sides still fighting to secure their place in the next phase. Nottingham Forest currently sit 23rd in the overall Europa League ranking, while Malmö occupy 33rd. The English side will look to build on their recent momentum, while the Swedish visitors aim to claim their first win of the group stage.
It has been a mixed European campaign for Nottingham Forest, who have managed just one win in their opening four Europa League matches. However, their domestic form has shown signs of improvement under Sean Dyche. The Tricky Trees’ emphatic 3-0 win over Liverpool in the Premier League was a statement of intent, proving their ability to compete against top opposition. Over their last five matches in all competitions, Forest have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
At home, Forest have been particularly resilient, remaining unbeaten under Dyche with two wins and one draw. Their 2-0 victory over FC Porto earlier in the group stage highlighted their defensive organization and attacking efficiency. Despite a lengthy injury list, the team’s confidence is high. Key absentees include Chris Wood, sidelined with a knee injury until December, and defenders Ola Aina and Oleksandr Zinchenko. In Wood’s absence, Igor Jesus is expected to lead the line, supported by a dynamic midfield that has shown increasing creativity in recent weeks.
Forest’s main challenge has been maintaining clean sheets. They have managed just three in their last ten matches, but their attacking output has compensated for defensive lapses. The home crowd at the City Ground will expect another strong performance as the team looks to extend its unbeaten home streak in Europe.
Malmö FF arrive in England hoping to turn around a disappointing European campaign. The Swedish champions have yet to win in the group stage, with their only positive result being a 1-1 draw against Dinamo Zagreb on matchday three. Domestically, Malmö ended their Allsvenskan season in sixth place, a result that fell short of expectations. Their last competitive outing was a 2-1 victory over GAIS on November 9, a match that showcased flashes of attacking promise.
In their last five matches across all competitions, Malmö have recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per game. The team’s defensive frailties have been evident, particularly in Europe, where they have lost eight of their nine encounters against English opposition. Moreover, Malmö have struggled to keep things tight in the second half — over 0.5 goals have been scored after the break in each of their last 13 matches, both domestically and in the Europa League.
Coach Henrik Rydström will rely heavily on Sead Haksabanovic and Anders Christiansen to inspire the attack. Haksabanovic’s influence is undeniable — Malmö have not lost in the last 15 matches in which the Montenegrin has scored. Christiansen, meanwhile, remains a key creative force, having finished the domestic season with four goals and an expected goals (xG) tally of 2.50. Despite these individual talents, Malmö’s overall European record remains poor, with just one win and sixteen defeats in their last twenty Europa League main draw fixtures.
This clash presents a fascinating contrast between a Premier League side regaining confidence and a Swedish outfit desperate to salvage pride in Europe. Nottingham Forest will look to impose their physicality and tempo early, using their home advantage to dictate play. Dyche’s men have scored three goals in each of their last two matches, and their attacking rhythm appears to be peaking at the right time. The absence of Chris Wood could slightly affect their aerial threat, but the pace and movement of Igor Jesus may trouble Malmö’s backline.
Malmö FF, on the other hand, will need to stay compact and disciplined to avoid being overrun. Their defensive structure has been inconsistent, and conceding early could open the floodgates. The Swedes will likely rely on counterattacks and set pieces, hoping that Haksabanovic can produce a moment of brilliance. However, facing a side that plays weekly at Premier League intensity will be a major test for Malmö’s stamina and organization.
Historically, Malmö’s record against English teams offers little encouragement, and their recent form suggests they may struggle to contain Forest’s attacking momentum. Still, both teams have shown vulnerabilities at the back, which could lead to an open and entertaining encounter. Given that both sides have scored in eight of their last ten combined matches, goals are expected at both ends.
The most likely outcome is Under 2.5 goals with a 51% probability. While Nottingham Forest enter as favorites, Malmö’s resilience and the hosts’ occasional defensive lapses could keep the scoreline tighter than expected.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Nottingham Forest
Malmö FF
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
2
8
3
7
2.5
5
5
4
6
3.5
5
5
4
6
4.5
7
3
5
5