The 2025 Copa Libertadores final brings together two Brazilian giants, Palmeiras and Flamengo, at the Estadio Monumental in Lima. This is not the first time these sides have met in such a decisive stage: they already faced each other in the 2021 final, when Palmeiras triumphed 2-1 after extra time. Flamengo, however, also has fond memories of the Peruvian capital, having lifted the trophy there in 2019 after defeating River Plate 2-1. Both clubs have dominated South American football in recent years, and once again the continental crown will stay in Brazil. Flamengo arrive as domestic league leaders with 75 points, five ahead of Palmeiras, and could celebrate a historic double if they prevail in Lima. For Palmeiras, this is a chance to redeem a difficult end to the season and reaffirm their continental pedigree.

Palmeiras’ Recent Form and Key Stats

Palmeiras come into this final in a complicated moment. The team has gone five matches without a win across all competitions, recording three defeats and two draws. Their most recent setback was a 3-2 loss to Grêmio on November 26, a result that further dented their domestic title hopes. Despite this poor run, the São Paulo side’s overall campaign in the Copa Libertadores remains impressive: 10 wins, 1 draw, and just 1 defeat, with an average of 2.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. At home, Palmeiras have been nearly unbeatable, remaining unbeaten in their last 21 home matches in the competition and avoiding defeat in 29 of their last 31 Libertadores fixtures.

However, the team faces significant absences. Midfielder Lucas Evangelista, one of the creative engines of Abel Ferreira’s system, is sidelined with a hamstring injury. In addition, young star Estevão left the club after the Club World Cup, though Vitor Roque has stepped in effectively, matching his predecessor’s attacking contribution. Up front, Flaco López remains the main reference, having scored 19 goals this season. Despite their attacking potential, Palmeiras’ recent matches have been low-scoring: Under 0.5 goals were recorded in their last two home games in the Libertadores, and the team has struggled to find rhythm in the final third.

Flamengo’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Flamengo approach this final in far better shape. Filipe Luís’ men drew 1-1 away to Atlético Mineiro in their last outing, maintaining their lead in the Brazilian league. Over their last five matches, they have achieved three wins, one draw, and one defeat, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. In the Copa Libertadores, their record is solid: 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a defensive average of just 0.4 goals conceded per game. The Rio de Janeiro side have been remarkably consistent in tight matches, with Under 3.5 goals in each of their last 17 Libertadores fixtures and Under 2.5 goals in their last nine away games.

Nevertheless, Flamengo will be without two key attacking players. Pedro is out with a hand fracture, while Gonzalo Plata is suspended after being sent off against Racing. The creative burden will fall on Giorgian De Arrascaeta, who has been outstanding this season with 21 goals and 15 assists across all competitions. Alongside him, Luiz Araújo provides pace and unpredictability on the wings. Flamengo’s tactical discipline has been one of their main strengths: they have not lost at half time in 36 of their last 39 Libertadores matches, and at least one team has failed to score before the break in 29 of their last 31. These numbers underline their ability to control matches and limit opponents’ chances.

Palmeiras vs Flamengo: Final Analysis and Prediction

This final promises to be a tense and strategic affair between two sides that know each other extremely well. Both teams have lifted the Libertadores trophy three times and boast deep, experienced squads. Palmeiras rely on the stability of Abel Ferreira’s long-term project, while Flamengo’s recent momentum and tactical organization under Filipe Luís make them a formidable opponent. The head-to-head record slightly favors Flamengo, who have won three of the last five meetings, including a 3-2 victory in October 2025. However, finals often defy statistics, and the balance between these teams suggests a cautious, low-scoring encounter.

Given Palmeiras’ recent offensive struggles and Flamengo’s defensive solidity, the match is expected to be decided by fine margins. Both sides have shown a tendency toward tight scorelines in continental play, with Under 2.5 goals featuring prominently in their recent Libertadores fixtures. The absence of key attacking players on both sides further supports the likelihood of a controlled, tactical battle rather than an open contest.

Palmeiras vs Flamengo prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is Under 2.5 goals with a 60% probability.