The Emilia Derby returns to Serie A as Parma host Bologna at the Stadio Ennio Tardini on Sunday, November 2, 2025, with kick-off scheduled for 18:00. The two sides are separated by eight points in the standings, with Bologna sitting comfortably in the top six while Parma continue to battle near the relegation zone. This encounter promises to be an intriguing clash between two teams with contrasting ambitions — survival for the hosts and European qualification for the visitors.

Parma’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Parma enter this derby in a difficult moment. The team led by Carlos Cuesta have collected only 7 points after nine rounds, placing them 15th in Serie A and just two points above the relegation zone. Their recent form has been worrying, with no wins in the last four matches. After two consecutive draws, Parma suffered a 2-1 defeat away to Roma in midweek, despite a late goal from Alessandro Circati that briefly reignited hope.

Statistically, Parma’s main issue lies in attack. They have scored just 4 goals in 9 league games, the lowest tally in the division, while conceding an average of 1 goal per match. Their last five fixtures show a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Despite these limitations, the Tardini has offered some stability: Parma have lost only 2 of their last 10 home league games, collecting 3 wins and 5 draws.

In terms of squad news, Cuesta faces several absences. Matija Frigan, Jacob Ondrejka, Mandela Keita, Gaetano Oristanio, and Emanuele Valeri are all unavailable due to injury. The coach is expected to stick with a 4-4-2 formation, with Mateo Pellegrino and Patrick Cutrone leading the line. Parma’s main objective remains avoiding relegation, and a positive result in this derby could provide a much-needed morale boost.

Bologna’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Bologna arrive in Parma in far better shape. Under Vincenzo Italiano, the Rossoblù have accumulated 15 points and currently sit 6th in Serie A, just three points off the Champions League spots. Their midweek 0-0 draw with Torino extended their unbeaten run to seven matches across all competitions (3 wins and 4 draws). In the league alone, Bologna have gone six games without defeat, showing consistency and defensive solidity.

Offensively, Bologna have been far more productive than their hosts, averaging 1.4 goals per game this season while conceding only 0.8. In their last five matches, they have scored an average of 2 goals per match and conceded just 0.6. However, their away record remains a concern: only one win in their last nine Serie A away fixtures, with three draws and five losses. Moreover, they have failed to score in four of those nine trips.

For this match, Italiano welcomes back Emil Holm after suspension, strengthening the defensive line. The only absentee is Ciro Immobile, sidelined with a thigh injury. In attack, Riccardo Orsolini and Santiago Castro are expected to start, as Federico Bernardeschi and Thijs Dallinga have struggled to make an impact in recent outings. Bologna’s coach hopes to capitalize on his team’s momentum and the return of key players to continue their positive run.

Parma vs Bologna Prediction and Tactical Overview

Historically, this fixture has been balanced but low-scoring. In their last five head-to-head meetings, Parma have recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.8 conceded per game. The most recent encounter ended 2-0 in favor of Bologna in February 2025. Given Parma’s attacking struggles and Bologna’s defensive discipline, another tight contest is expected.

Parma’s inability to convert chances could once again prove costly, especially against a Bologna side that thrives on organization and quick transitions. The visitors’ midfield control and pressing under Italiano have been key to their recent success, while Parma’s lack of creativity in the final third remains a major concern. The hosts will likely rely on set pieces and counterattacks, but Bologna’s superior form and confidence make them slight favorites.

Considering the current dynamics — Parma’s poor scoring record, Bologna’s solid defense, and the trend of low-scoring derbies — this match could be decided by fine margins. A cautious approach from both sides is expected, with Bologna aiming to extend their unbeaten streak and Parma desperate to avoid another setback at home.

Probable Lineups Parma vs Bologna
PARMA (4-4-2): Chichizola; Del Prato, Circati, Osorio, Coulibaly; Man, Sohm, Estevez, Benedyczak; Pellegrino, Cutrone. Coach: C. Cuesta
BOLOGNA (4-3-3): Skorupski; Holm, Lucumí, Calafiori, Lykogiannis; Ferguson, Aebischer, Moro; Orsolini, Castro, Saelemaekers. Coach: V. Italiano

Parma vs Bologna prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is a Bologna win (2) with a 45% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 29%, while a Parma win (1) stands at 27%. Additionally, there is a strong tendency toward Under 2.5 goals with a 62% probability, suggesting a tight and tactical encounter at the Tardini.