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Prediction published on May 8, 2026 4:02 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on May 8, 2026 4:02 PM
The upcoming Serie A clash between Parma and Roma promises to be a compelling encounter with contrasting motivations for both sides. Scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026, this match at the Stadio Tardini will see the home team looking to finish the season on a positive note, while the visitors aim to strengthen their push for a top-four finish and a place in next season’s Champions League. With Roma sitting fifth and just one point away from the coveted fourth spot, every goal and every point will matter in this decisive stage of the campaign.
Parma approach this fixture in a relatively comfortable position, having already secured their Serie A status. The team currently occupies 12th place in the standings and has shown resilience in recent weeks. Their last five matches have produced two wins, two draws, and one defeat, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Although their attacking numbers remain modest, their defensive organization has been key to their stability.
In their most recent outing, Parma fell 2-0 to Inter on May 3, ending a four-match unbeaten streak. Before that, they had recorded back-to-back 1-0 victories against Udinese and Pisa, both achieved with clean sheets. Over the course of the season, Parma’s record stands at 10 wins, 12 draws, and 13 defeats, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. These figures underline a team that relies on compactness and discipline rather than attacking flair.
At home, Parma have been difficult to beat, losing only one of their last five matches at the Tardini. Their main attacking reference remains Mateo Pellegrino, who has netted eight goals this season, while Gabriel Strefezza and Nesta Elphege provide additional options in the final third. The squad is nearly at full strength, with only Benjamin Cremaschi and Matija Frigan unavailable due to injury.
Roma enter this match in strong form and full of confidence after a commanding 4-0 victory over Fiorentina on May 4. That result extended their excellent scoring run, as they have now found the net in each of their last 14 matches in all competitions and in their last 12 Serie A games. The Giallorossi have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last five fixtures, winning three, drawing one, and losing one.
Over the course of the season, Roma’s record of 20 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats reflects their attacking intent and defensive solidity. They average 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, which places them among the league’s most balanced sides. With 10 goals scored in their last four league games, they have shown an impressive offensive rhythm that could prove decisive in Parma.
Despite several absences — including Evan Ferguson, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Bryan Zaragoza, and Artem Dovbyk — Roma continue to perform at a high level. Donyell Malen remains their main attacking threat, having scored 11 goals in 15 Serie A appearances. He is expected to be supported by Matias Soulé and Niccolò Pisilli, both of whom have contributed effectively in recent weeks. The team’s attacking depth and creativity have been crucial in maintaining their Champions League ambitions.
This fixture sets up an intriguing tactical battle between Parma’s compact defensive structure and Roma’s dynamic attacking approach. The home side will likely focus on maintaining shape and exploiting counterattacks, while Roma are expected to dominate possession and press high in search of early goals. Given Parma’s tendency to keep matches tight and Roma’s attacking momentum, the contest could hinge on whether the visitors can break through a disciplined defensive block.
Historically, Roma have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning four of the last five meetings and averaging 2.2 goals per game against Parma. The most recent encounter ended 2-1 in Roma’s favor, suggesting that goals are likely but not guaranteed in this fixture. With Parma averaging less than one goal per match and Roma consistently scoring multiple times, the balance appears to tilt toward the visitors.
Based on current form, statistical trends, and the balance of strengths between the two teams, the BetMines prediction points toward a Roma win (2) with a probability of 46%. Parma’s solid defensive record may keep the scoreline respectable, but Roma’s superior attacking form and motivation to secure Champions League qualification make them the favorites to take all three points at the Tardini.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Parma
Roma
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
0
10
1.5
4
6
1
9
2.5
8
2
4
6
3.5
8
2
6
4
4.5
8
2
7
3