The third round of the FA Cup brings an intriguing clash between two clubs from different divisions, as Portsmouth host Arsenal at Fratton Park. The home side, representing the EFL Championship, will be eager to cause an upset against one of the most successful teams in the competition’s history. This fixture marks the fifth FA Cup meeting between the two sides, with Arsenal having won all previous encounters. The Gunners enter this tie as clear favourites, but the magic of the FA Cup often produces surprises, and Portsmouth will hope to make the most of their home advantage.

Portsmouth’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Portsmouth approach this match after a difficult start to 2026, having suffered a heavy 5-0 defeat against Bristol City on January 1. That result ended a four-match unbeaten run, which had briefly lifted their confidence in the Championship. Currently sitting just one point above the relegation zone, their focus has shifted to the FA Cup, where they have struggled in recent years. In fact, Portsmouth have failed to progress beyond the third round in any of their last five appearances in the competition.

In their last five matches across all competitions, Portsmouth have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Their home form has been inconsistent, with a notable trend of low-scoring first halves — under 1.5 goals have been scored before half time in each of their last 12 home matches. Additionally, at least one team has failed to score before the break in 21 consecutive home fixtures, suggesting a cautious approach early in games.

Offensively, Portsmouth have lacked sharpness in the final third. Makenzie Kirk has been their main attacking outlet but has managed just one goal in 11 league appearances. Midfielder Adrian Segecic has been more productive, contributing four goals and two assists in 20 appearances this season. However, the team’s overall creativity remains limited, and facing a Premier League defence could expose their attacking deficiencies. Historically, Portsmouth have lost all four of their FA Cup ties against Arsenal, scoring only a handful of goals in those meetings.

Arsenal’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Arsenal come into this fixture in strong form, having drawn 0-0 with Liverpool in their most recent Premier League outing on January 8. That result kept them unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions. The Gunners have also avoided defeat in 26 of their last 27 matches, underlining their consistency and resilience. In their last five games, they have registered 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring an average of 2.0 goals while conceding just 1.0 per match.

In the FA Cup, Arsenal have a proud history with 14 titles to their name, though recent campaigns have been less successful. They have been eliminated in the third or fourth round in each of their last five appearances, including back-to-back exits at this stage against Liverpool and Manchester United. Despite that, their attacking power remains formidable — at least one goal has been scored by Arsenal in 26 of their last 27 matches, and they have found the net in each of their last 12 away fixtures.

Defensively, Arsenal have been solid, rarely trailing at half time — they have avoided defeat before the break in 20 of their last 22 matches. Their matches tend to be tight, with under 3.5 goals scored in each of their last 12 FA Cup games. Even with potential squad rotation ahead of a busy schedule, the Gunners’ depth gives them a clear edge. Players such as Gabriel Martinelli and Noni Madueke could feature prominently, while the fixture might also offer a chance for Viktor Gyokeres to rediscover his scoring touch after a prolonged goal drought.

Portsmouth vs Arsenal Analysis and Prediction

This FA Cup tie presents a classic David vs Goliath scenario. Portsmouth will rely on their home crowd and defensive discipline to stay competitive, but their recent form and lack of attacking efficiency raise concerns. Arsenal, on the other hand, have been consistent and composed, rarely allowing opponents to dictate the tempo. The visitors’ superior quality, experience, and squad depth make them overwhelming favourites to progress.

Historically, Arsenal have dominated this fixture, winning all five previous meetings and averaging 2.8 goals scored per game against Portsmouth. Given the trends, a low-scoring first half followed by a more open second period seems likely. Portsmouth’s defensive frailties, combined with Arsenal’s attacking rhythm, could lead to a comfortable away win once the Premier League side finds its stride.

Considering the statistical patterns — including Arsenal’s unbeaten run, their scoring consistency, and Portsmouth’s struggles against top-tier opposition — the most probable outcome points towards another Arsenal victory. The Gunners’ ability to control matches and convert chances should see them through to the next round of the FA Cup.

Portsmouth vs Arsenal prediction by BetMines:
Arsenal win (2) with a probability of 63%.