On Tuesday, October 14, at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon, the most anticipated match of the 4th round in Group F of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers takes place: Portugal vs Hungary. The top two teams of the group face off, with 9 and 4 points respectively, and only three matches left before the end of the qualifying phase. For the hosts, a win would almost secure direct qualification for the next FIFA World Cup, while for the visitors, a victory would be equally crucial — it would consolidate second place, crucial for a play-off spot, and keep Armenia (just one point behind and facing Ireland, bottom of the group with only one point) at bay. This is therefore a high-stakes clash that could already prove decisive for the group’s outcome: Portugal looking to seal qualification and fly to the World Cup, and Hungary hoping to keep alive their dream of returning to football’s biggest stage, forty years after their last appearance.

Portugal's form and key stats

Portugal come into this match following an important 1–0 win against Ireland, secured thanks to a last-minute goal from Ruben Navas after Cristiano Ronaldo missed a penalty. For the Portuguese side, this was their sixth consecutive positive result (5 wins, 1 draw).

Roberto Martinez’s team leads Group F with a perfect record after three games, averaging 3 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded per match. One of the team's strengths is its solid defense, which has kept a clean sheet in two of their last three games.

The reigning UEFA Nations League champions boast an impressive home record, having remained unbeaten in their last 17 matches in all competitions played on Portuguese soil. Focusing only on World Cup qualifiers, Portugal have won five of their last six home games in this competition.

Hungary's form and key stats

In their most recent match on October 11, Hungary achieved an important 2–0 win over Armenia thanks to second-half goals from Sallai and Gruber. For the Hungarians, it marked a return to victory after six games without a win (4 defeats, 2 draws).

Currently, Marco Rossi’s men sit second in Group F with 4 points from 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 defeat, averaging 2 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. Defensively, the win over Armenia was significant as it ended a streak of six consecutive games in which they had conceded at least one goal.

In their only away game so far in the World Cup qualifiers, Hungary drew 2–2 against Ireland after taking an early two-goal lead within 15 minutes. Previously, they had suffered two consecutive Nations League defeats against strong opponents like the Netherlands and Turkey.

Portugal vs Hungary prediction by BetMines

The BetMines prediction for Portugal vs Hungary leaves little room for doubt: the hosts are clear favorites to win. The Portuguese side, riding a long unbeaten streak and boasting a technically superior squad, seem to have very few real challengers at the moment.

According to BetMines’ algorithm, the home win (1) has a 68% probability, while the draw stands at 19% and Hungary’s away victory at 14%.

The historical head-to-head record supports this trend: in the last five meetings between the two nations, Portugal have collected four wins and one draw, confirming their consistent dominance over the Hungarians.

In addition to the favorable prediction for Cristiano Ronaldo and his teammates, BetMines suggests there’s a strong chance the visitors might fail to score, as has happened in three of the last four head-to-heads. The outcome “both teams to score – no” has a 53% probability, compared to 47% for “both teams to score – yes.”

Probable line-ups Portugal vs Hungary

PORTUGAL (4-2-3-1): Costa; Dalot, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha; Trincao, Fernandes, Leao; Ronaldo. Coach: Martinez.

HUNGARY (4-4-2): B. Toth; Nego, Orban, Szalai, Kerkez; Bolla, Styles, Schafer, Szoboszlai; Sallai, Varga. Coach: Rossi.