The first El Clásico of the 2025/26 La Liga season arrives this Sunday afternoon, as Real Madrid and FC Barcelona renew their historic rivalry at the Santiago Bernabéu. The two giants of Spanish football meet again after a previous campaign dominated by the Catalans, who won all four encounters across competitions, including a dramatic extra-time victory in the Copa del Rey final. This time, however, the context is different: Real Madrid lead the league table with 24 points, while Barcelona sit just behind with 22, setting the stage for a potentially decisive early-season clash.

Real Madrid’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Real Madrid enter the match as league leaders, boasting an impressive record of eight wins and one defeat in La Liga. Their only setback came in the Madrid derby against Atlético (5-2), but since then, Xabi Alonso’s men have responded strongly with victories over Villarreal (3-1), Getafe (0-1), Juventus (1-0), and Kairat Almaty (0-5) in the Champions League. Despite not always displaying the fluid attacking football expected from such a star-studded squad, the results have been consistently positive.

At the Bernabéu, Real Madrid have been nearly untouchable. They have won their last nine home matches in all competitions and remain unbeaten in their last 12 home league games. The team has scored in each of its last 22 home fixtures, underlining their attacking reliability. Defensively, they have also improved compared to last season, conceding an average of just one goal per game in La Liga.

In terms of personnel, Alonso faces some defensive concerns. Mendy and Rüdiger are ruled out through injury, while both Carvajal and Trent remain doubtful. This could force tactical adjustments, possibly pushing Valverde to right-back if needed. The midfield trio of Tchouaméni, Bellingham, and either Camavinga or Güler is expected to start, while the attacking line will feature Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé, the latter in scintillating form and locked in a scoring duel with Erling Haaland. Courtois will once again be a key figure between the posts.

FC Barcelona’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Barcelona travel to Madrid in second place, just two points behind their rivals, but their recent performances have raised some concerns. After a strong run of five consecutive wins, Hansi Flick’s side have shown signs of inconsistency. They suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat at Sevilla and narrowly avoided a home upset against Girona, winning 2-1 thanks to a stoppage-time goal from Araújo. In Europe, their 1-2 loss to PSG further highlighted defensive vulnerabilities that were absent last season.

Despite these issues, Barcelona’s attacking numbers remain impressive. They have scored in each of their last 40 matches in all competitions and average 2.7 goals per game in La Liga. However, their defensive record has slipped, conceding 1.1 goals per match on average. Away from home, they have found the net in their last 18 fixtures, but their last league trip ended in a heavy defeat, suggesting that their backline can be exposed by top-tier opposition.

Injuries are a major concern for Flick. Raphinha and Lewandowski are both unavailable, while Ter Stegen, Gavi, Christensen, Dani Olmo, and Joan García are also sidelined. As a result, the likely starting lineup will feature Szczesny in goal; Koundé, Cubarsí, Eric García, and Balde in defense; Pedri, Fermín, and De Jong in midfield; with Lamine Yamal, Ferran Torres, and Rashford forming the attacking trio. The young Lamine Yamal has been in the spotlight recently, both for his performances and his outspoken comments about Real Madrid, adding extra spice to the encounter.

Real Madrid vs FC Barcelona: Tactical Overview and Prediction

Both teams enter this Clásico with contrasting dynamics. Real Madrid’s home dominance and solid defensive structure make them slight favorites, while Barcelona’s injury crisis and recent defensive lapses could prove costly. The Catalans have historically performed well in this fixture, winning four of the last five meetings, but the current momentum favors the hosts.

Expect a high-intensity match with plenty of attacking flair. Given both sides’ offensive potential—Real Madrid averaging 2.2 goals per game and Barcelona 2.7—goals seem inevitable. The statistics also show that Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 70% of their recent matches, and both teams have found the net in 70% of their games. With both attacks in form and defenses showing occasional fragility, another goal-filled Clásico could be on the cards.

Real Madrid’s home record—six wins in six league games at the Bernabéu—combined with Barcelona’s recent struggles on the road, suggests that Xabi Alonso’s men have a genuine opportunity to end their poor run against their eternal rivals. The absence of key players like Lewandowski and Raphinha further tilts the balance toward the home side.

Probable Lineups Real Madrid vs FC Barcelona

REAL MADRID (4-3-3): Courtois; Valverde, Militao, Huijsen, Carreras; Tchouaméni, Güler, Bellingham; Mastantuono, Vinícius Júnior, Mbappé. Coach: X. Alonso

FC BARCELONA (4-3-3): Szczesny; Koundé, Cubarsí, Eric García, Balde; Pedri, Fermín, De Jong; Lamine Yamal, Ferran Torres, Rashford. Coach: H. Flick

BetMines Prediction: Real Madrid vs FC Barcelona

The most likely outcome is a Real Madrid win (1) with a 43% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 22%, while a Barcelona win (2) stands at 35%. Given both teams’ attacking form, another strong possibility is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% probability.