The Coppa Italia Round of 16 brings an intriguing clash at the Stadio Olimpico as Roma host Torino. The Giallorossi approach this knockout tie with home advantage and a clear objective: to continue their pursuit of silverware in a competition they have historically performed well in. Torino, on the other hand, view the cup as an opportunity to give meaning to a season that has so far been inconsistent in the league. Both sides arrive with contrasting momentum, and the stakes are high with a quarter-final spot against Inter awaiting the winner.

Roma’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Roma enter this fixture in solid form, having defeated Sassuolo 2-0 on January 10, 2026. Over their last five matches, they have recorded three wins and two defeats, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. The Giallorossi have shown remarkable consistency in avoiding draws — they have not drawn any of their last 32 matches, and this trend extends to their home record, with no draws in the last 16 home fixtures.

Defensively, Roma have been compact, with Under 3.5 goals recorded in 25 of their last 27 matches. Their matches often start cautiously, as at least one team failed to score in the first half in 37 of their last 40 games. However, their record in the Coppa Italia shows some vulnerability in early stages, having lost at half time in six of their last ten matches in the competition.

After a strong start to the season, Roma’s league campaign has slightly slowed, but they remain competitive in the top four race. This Coppa Italia tie marks their debut in the current edition, earned thanks to their fifth-place finish last season. With two consecutive victories behind them, confidence is building again under Gasperini’s leadership, and the team will aim to extend their positive run at home.

Torino’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Torino arrive at the Olimpico following a 2-0 defeat to Atalanta on January 10, 2026. Their recent form has been mixed, with two wins and three losses in their last five outings, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. In the Coppa Italia, however, the Granata have been efficient, winning both of their previous rounds without conceding a goal — an impressive record of W2 · D0 · L0 with an average of 1.0 goal scored per game.

Low-scoring encounters have characterized Torino’s cup performances, with Under 0.5 goals in three of their last 13 Coppa Italia matches and in two of their last ten away games. Their attack has struggled for consistency, and the team’s challenge will be to find a breakthrough against Roma’s disciplined defense. Despite their historical success in the competition — five titles overall — Torino’s current campaign has been marked by inconsistency, and this tie represents both a test and an opportunity to regain momentum.

Baroni’s side will likely rely on a compact setup, aiming to frustrate Roma and exploit counterattacking opportunities. Having already eliminated Modena and Pisa, Torino have shown resilience in knockout football, but facing a top-tier opponent away from home will demand a higher level of precision and focus.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

The historical record between these two sides in the Coppa Italia is balanced, with 22 previous meetings producing 9 Roma wins, 7 Torino wins, and 6 draws. The last encounter in this competition dates back to 2018, when Torino triumphed 2-1 at the Olimpico. In more recent clashes across all competitions, Roma hold the upper hand, with three wins, one draw, and one defeat in the last five head-to-heads, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.

Roma’s home advantage could prove decisive, especially considering their strong record at the Olimpico and Torino’s recent struggles on the road. The Giallorossi’s attacking play has lacked a consistent finisher, but their collective organization and midfield control often compensate. Torino, meanwhile, will need to rediscover their defensive solidity and hope their forwards can capitalize on limited chances.

Given the statistical trends, a tight and tactical battle is expected. Roma’s matches tend to stay under the 3.5-goal mark, while Torino’s cup fixtures have also been low-scoring. The first half may see cautious play from both sides before the game opens up in the later stages.

Probable Lineups Roma vs Torino

ROMA (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Celik, Mancini, Hermoso; Wesley, Koné, Cristante, El Shaarawy; Soulé, Pisilli; Ferguson.
TORINO (3-5-2): Israel; Ismajli, Maripan, Saul Coco; Aboukjlal, Casadei, Ilkhan, Anjorin, Lazaro; Zapata, Adams.

Roma vs Torino Prediction and Final Analysis

All signs point to a competitive but controlled encounter. Roma’s superior form, home advantage, and defensive balance make them the favorites to progress. Torino’s recent defeats and limited attacking output suggest they may struggle to overturn the odds, though their cup resilience cannot be dismissed entirely.

Based on the available data, Roma hold a 59% chance of victory, with the draw at 24% and Torino at 16%. The likelihood of Under 2.5 goals stands at 55%, while Both Teams To Score – No is slightly favored at 55%. Considering Roma’s strong home record and Torino’s low-scoring pattern in the competition, a narrow home win appears the most probable outcome.

Roma vs Torino prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 59% probability.