On Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 16:00, São Paulo and Juventude face off in a crucial Brasileirão Série A encounter. The two sides arrive in contrasting situations: the Tricolor Paulista are still chasing a spot in next season’s Copa Libertadores, while the team from Caxias do Sul are fighting to avoid relegation. Despite São Paulo’s higher position in the table, their recent performances have been inconsistent, and they will once again play away from their usual home ground, as the Morumbi remains unavailable due to concerts. This neutral setting in Santos could level the playing field slightly, making the clash tighter than expected.

São Paulo’s Recent Form and Key Stats

São Paulo currently sit 10th in the Serie A standings, with a record of 12 wins, 9 draws, and 13 defeats. Their latest outing ended in a 3-1 loss to Corinthians on November 20, a setback that highlighted their ongoing defensive fragility. Over their last five matches, they have collected two wins, one draw, and two losses, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Across the season, their scoring average stands at 1.1 goals per match, while conceding 1.2 on average.

At home, São Paulo have shown strength in the early stages of matches, having led at half time in seven of their last ten home games in Serie A. However, their overall form remains inconsistent, with injuries and suspensions continuing to disrupt coach Hernán Crespo’s plans. The squad is heavily depleted: Arboleda, Calleri, Enzo Díaz, Dinneno, Luan, Lucas Moura, Marcos Antônio, Oscar, Rodriguinho, Ryan Francisco, and Wendell are all unavailable due to injuries, while Alisson is suspended and Rafael Tolói remains doubtful. As a result, Crespo is expected to rely on players such as Rafael, Alan Franco, Ferrareri, Sabino, Cédric, Luiz Gustavo, Pablo Maia, Patrick, Ferreirinha, Tapia, and Luciano to carry the team forward.

Another notable trend is São Paulo’s tendency for low-scoring first halves: in 28 of their last 30 matches, at least one team failed to score before the break. This pattern suggests that the Tricolor often start cautiously, prioritizing defensive stability before pushing forward later in the game.

Juventude’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Juventude are in a far more precarious position, sitting 19th in the table with 9 wins, 6 draws, and 19 defeats. Their last match, a thrilling 3-3 draw against Cruzeiro on November 20, showed both their attacking potential and defensive vulnerabilities. Over their last five games, they have recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match. Despite their ability to find the net, their defense remains one of the weakest in the league, conceding nearly two goals per game on average.

Coach Thiago Carpini, who previously managed São Paulo, will look to use his familiarity with the Tricolor to his advantage. However, his squad also faces several absences: Romero and Gilberto are injured, Nenê and Alan are suspended, and there are doubts over Emerson Galego and Natã. Likely starters include Jandrei, Marcelo Hermes, Marcos Paulo, Luan Freitas, Igor Formiga, Jádson, Mandaca, Caíque Gonçalves, Rafael Bilu, and Gabriel Taliari.

Juventude’s away form has been particularly poor. They have lost at half time in 12 of their last 17 away matches in Serie A, often struggling to recover from early setbacks. Their defense tends to collapse under pressure, especially against technically superior teams. Although they have managed to score more freely in recent weeks, their inability to maintain leads has cost them valuable points in the relegation battle.

São Paulo vs Juventude: Match Analysis and Tactical Overview

This fixture brings together two teams with very different ambitions but similar recent struggles. São Paulo, despite being favorites, have not been convincing in recent weeks, while Juventude’s desperation for points could make them a dangerous opponent. The Tricolor’s superior squad quality and home advantage — even if played in Santos — should still give them the edge, particularly if they can control possession and exploit Juventude’s defensive lapses.

Historically, São Paulo have had the upper hand in this matchup, with two wins, two draws, and one defeat in their last five meetings, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. The last encounter ended in a 1-0 victory for Juventude on July 24, 2025, a result that São Paulo will be eager to avenge. Given both teams’ current form, this could be a tight and low-scoring affair, with São Paulo’s attacking depth likely to make the difference in the second half.

Both sides have shown defensive weaknesses, but São Paulo’s ability to dominate at home and their tendency to lead early could prove decisive. Juventude, on the other hand, will need to stay compact and capitalize on counterattacks if they hope to take anything from this match. A narrow win for the Tricolor seems the most plausible outcome, potentially by a 1-0 or 2-1 margin.

Probable Lineups São Paulo vs Juventude

SÃO PAULO (4-2-3-1): Rafael; Alan Franco, Ferrareri, Sabino, Cédric; Luiz Gustavo, Pablo Maia; Patrick, Ferreirinha, Tapia; Luciano. Coach: Hernán Crespo.

JUVENTUDE (4-4-2): Jandrei; Marcelo Hermes, Marcos Paulo, Luan Freitas, Igor Formiga; Jádson, Mandaca, Caíque Gonçalves, Rafael Bilu; Gabriel Taliari, Emerson Galego (doubt). Coach: Thiago Carpini.

São Paulo vs Juventude Prediction by BetMines

The most likely outcome is a São Paulo win (1) with a 57% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 23%, while a Juventude win (2) stands at 20%.