The 11th round of Ligue 1 brings an intriguing mid-table clash as Toulouse FC host Le Havre AC at the Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Both sides have shown resilience and consistency in recent weeks, making this encounter one of the most balanced fixtures of the weekend. Toulouse, currently sitting 9th in the standings, have been quietly impressive under Carles Martínez Novell, while Le Havre, just one point behind in 10th place, continue to exceed expectations under Didier Digard.

Toulouse FC: Recent Form and Key Stats

Toulouse enter this match after a thrilling 2-2 draw against Rennes on October 29. Despite trailing by two goals early in the second half, the team showed great character to fight back and secure a valuable point in front of their supporters. That result extended their solid run, with only one defeat in their last five Ligue 1 outings (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Over that span, they have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, reflecting a balanced yet attack-minded approach.

Across the season, Toulouse’s record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, with an average of 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Their home form has been particularly entertaining — each of their last ten Ligue 1 matches at the Stadium has produced over 1.5 total goals. The fans have grown accustomed to open, high-scoring contests, and this weekend could bring more of the same.

Defensively, Charlie Cresswell has been a standout performer, not only anchoring the backline but also contributing offensively with three goals so far this season. In attack, Aron Donnum has been in fine form, registering two goals and one assist in his last three appearances. Yann Gboho has also been decisive, directly involved in three of Toulouse’s last five matches. However, the team remains without Rafik Messali and Niklas Schmidt, both sidelined through injury.

Le Havre AC: Recent Form and Key Stats

Le Havre continue to impress in their second consecutive top-flight campaign. The Normandy side currently occupy 10th place, just two points behind Toulouse, and have lost only once in their last six Ligue 1 fixtures. That solitary defeat came away to Marseille (6-2), a match heavily influenced by the early red card shown to Gautier Lloris. Since then, Digard’s men have responded superbly, recording back-to-back wins against Auxerre (1-0) and Brest (1-0).

Over their last five matches, Le Havre have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Their season totals mirror that balance (3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses). A key factor in their recent success has been the form of goalkeeper Mory Diaw, who has kept two consecutive clean sheets. His reliability between the posts has given the team a solid foundation to build upon.

Offensively, Abdoulaye Touré has rediscovered his best form, scoring twice in the last three rounds, while Issa Soumaré continues to shine with three goals and two assists this season. There are, however, some uncertainties in the squad: Arouna Sangante, Ally Samatta, and Damián Pizarro remain doubtful for the trip to Toulouse. Despite these potential absences, Le Havre’s collective spirit and tactical discipline have made them a difficult side to beat, especially in the second half of matches — over 0.5 goals have been scored after halftime in 18 of their last 20 away games.

Toulouse vs Le Havre: Match Analysis and Prediction

This fixture promises to be a tight and competitive affair between two teams in good form. Toulouse will look to capitalize on their home advantage and attacking momentum, while Le Havre’s recent defensive solidity and counter-attacking efficiency could make them a serious threat on the break. Historically, Toulouse have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning three of the last five meetings, including a commanding 4-1 victory in February 2025.

However, both sides have shown a tendency to share points in evenly matched contests. Toulouse have not won in their last two games, while Le Havre are unbeaten in their previous two. Given their respective strengths — Toulouse’s offensive flair and Le Havre’s defensive organization — a balanced encounter with limited scoring opportunities seems likely. Recent trends also suggest that matches involving Toulouse at home often feature goals, but Le Havre’s disciplined approach could keep things under control.

In terms of entertainment value, fans can expect a lively second half, as both teams tend to find their rhythm after the break. Yet, with both sides evenly matched in form and confidence, a draw would not be a surprising outcome at the Stadium this Sunday.

Toulouse vs Le Havre prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is a Toulouse win (1) with a 49% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 27%, while a Le Havre win (2) stands at 24%.