After finishing third in the UEFA Nations League, World Cup runners-up France officially begin their journey toward what should, barring surprises, be a straightforward qualification for next year’s World Cup in the United States. The first opponent on Didier Deschamps’ path is Ukraine, who on paper are set to battle head-to-head with Iceland for second place, which grants access to the playoffs. Completing Group D is Azerbaijan, expected to play the role of underdog but potentially decisive in the race for second place. As for Ukraine, the Yellow-Blues are still forced to play their “home” matches abroad, but despite that, they came close to promotion to League A of the Nations League last June, being stopped in the playoffs by Belgium. After competing in Euro 2024, where they were eliminated in the group stage, Serhiy Rebrov’s men now dream of a new milestone: qualifying for a World Cup exactly 20 years after their last appearance. France, on the other hand, are a regular at World Cups and are eager to qualify to avenge their heartbreaking penalty shootout loss to Argentina in the last final. Didier Deschamps remains at the helm of Les Bleus and has perhaps the most lethal attack of his tenure, with Kylian Mbappé (top scorer of the 2024/25 Ligue 1 season) and Ousmane Dembélé (fresh from a treble with Paris Saint-Germain and a potential Ballon d’Or contender). The key challenge for Deschamps will be to find the right balance in a team that, in recent years, has alternated between brilliant performances and disappointing ones—falling short in both the last World Cup and European Championship despite reaching the final and semifinal, respectively. That said, Les Bleus are the heavy favorites to top Group D and qualify directly for their eighth consecutive World Cup.

Ukraine's Recent Form and Key Stats

Ukraine come into this match after an impressive Nations League campaign. They finished second in League B Group 1 behind Czechia, nearly achieving promotion before losing a two-legged playoff to Belgium. After winning the first leg 3-1, they collapsed 3-0 in the return match in Genk.

Despite not playing on home soil for three years, Ukraine have maintained a strong “home” record, losing only one of their last 15 designated home games. They have also drawn or won eight of their last nine World Cup Qualifying matches. However, they have only qualified once for the tournament proper—Germany 2006.

France's Recent Form and Key Stats

France won Group 2 of the UEFA Nations League (League A), but their performances in the March playoffs were inconsistent. They lost the first leg of the quarterfinals against Croatia 2-0, but overturned the deficit at home and advanced via penalties. In the semifinals, they were beaten 5-4 by Spain, before bouncing back to beat Germany 2-0 in the third-place playoff.

Deschamps’ side averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in their last five games. They remain unbeaten in their last seven World Cup Qualifiers. Across their 10 Nations League matches in 2024/25, France registered 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, averaging 2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game.

Ukraine vs France Prediction and Tactical Outlook

France arrive at the Tarczynski Arena with a clear goal: start the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifiers on the right foot by claiming all three points, before a potentially tougher clash against Iceland.

Les Bleus are clear favorites, but Ukraine could still pose problems. Rebrov’s men will aim to use the “home” factor to snatch at least a point from Mbappé and company.

Tactically, France are expected to dominate possession, while Ukraine will look for long balls to Artem Dovbyk, tasked with holding up play and linking with midfield runners. However, the Roma striker is not in peak form, which reduces Ukraine’s chances of creating real threats against Mike Maignan.

According to the BetMines algorithm, goals should be expected but with fewer than four overall, with France the most likely team to score. Defensive focus will be on Ilya Zabarnyi, PSG’s new signing, and goalkeeper Anatolii Trubin, who recently helped Benfica qualify for the next Champions League.

• Ukraine vs France prediction by BetMines: Under 3.5 goals with 76% probability
  
  
• Ukraine vs France prediction by BetMines: Over 3.5 goals with 24% probability

Probable Lineups Ukraine vs France

UKRAINE (4-1-4-1): Trubin; Konoplya, Zabarnyi, Matvienko, Mykolenko; Bondarenko; Zubkov, Zinchenko, Hutsulyak, Sudakov; Dovbyk. Coach: Serhiy Rebrov

FRANCE (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Konaté, Theo Hernandez; Tchouaméni, Rabiot; Dembélé, Olise, Thuram; Mbappé. Coach: Didier Deschamps