The 17th round of La Liga opens this Friday with a crucial clash between Valencia and Mallorca, two sides in need of points to move away from the relegation zone. Both teams arrive with contrasting moods after their recent cup fixtures, but the league remains their main focus as the battle for survival intensifies.

Valencia’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Valencia come into this match after a morale-boosting 0-2 win over Sporting Gijón in the Copa del Rey, but their league form continues to raise concerns. The team sits 17th in the table, level on points with the first relegation spot, and has managed only three victories so far this season. Their record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats underlines a campaign full of inconsistency and missed opportunities.

In their last five matches across all competitions, Valencia have recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Despite their struggles, Mestalla has provided some stability — 12 of their 15 points have been earned at home. However, the team’s attacking output remains modest, with an average of 0.9 goals scored per match in La Liga, while conceding 1.6.

Statistically, Valencia’s matches tend to be tight and low-scoring affairs. Under 3.5 goals have been recorded in each of their last 18 home league games, and under 1.5 goals at half time in 21 of their last 22 matches. Moreover, at least one team has failed to score before the break in their last 23 fixtures, highlighting a pattern of cautious starts. On the positive side, there has been at least one goal in the second half of each of their last 10 games, suggesting that late drama often defines their results.

Coach Corberán will be without Cömmert and Rioja due to injuries, but most of the squad is available. The likely lineup could feature Agirrezabala in goal, with Correia, Tárrega, Copete, and Gayà in defense. In midfield, Pepelu and Santamaría may anchor the play, while Raba, Almeida, and Danjuma support striker Hugo Duro, the team’s top scorer this season. Duro’s determination and work rate make him a key figure in Valencia’s hopes of securing a vital home win.

Mallorca’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Mallorca arrive in Valencia after a narrow 1-0 defeat to Deportivo La Coruña in the Copa del Rey, a setback that ended their cup run. In La Liga, however, the Balearic side have shown improvement, currently sitting 14th with a record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses. They have collected two more points than Valencia and are unbeaten in their last four league matches, including a convincing 3-1 home victory over Elche in their most recent outing.

Over their last five matches, Mallorca have achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their away form remains a concern, though — only one win in eight league trips this season. In fact, under 0.5 goals have been recorded in two of their last ten away matches, showing a tendency for low-scoring performances on the road.

For this match, Mallorca will be without Mascarell, who is away on international duty, and Morlanes, sidelined through injury. The expected starting eleven could include Leo Román in goal, with Maffeo, Valjent, Raíllo, and Mojica forming the defensive line. Samú Costa and Sánchez are likely to control midfield, while Asano, Darder, and Virgili support striker Muriqi, the team’s main attacking reference. Joseph could also feature from the start depending on tactical adjustments.

Historically, Mallorca have struggled at Mestalla, losing their last visit 1-0. In the last five head-to-head meetings, Valencia have won once, drawn twice, and lost twice, with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. These numbers suggest another close encounter could be on the cards.

Valencia vs Mallorca Analysis and Prediction

This fixture has all the ingredients of a tense relegation battle. Valencia are desperate to turn their home advantage into three points, while Mallorca aim to continue their steady climb up the table. The hosts’ defensive discipline and the visitors’ organized structure point toward a balanced contest with few scoring chances.

Given both teams’ recent trends, a low-scoring match seems likely. Valencia’s home games rarely exceed three goals, and Mallorca’s away fixtures often follow the same pattern. The first half may again be tight, with most of the action expected after the break. The pressure on Valencia to deliver in front of their fans could push them to take more risks as the game progresses, but Mallorca’s counterattacking ability remains a threat.

According to the latest data, the win probabilities stand at Valencia 50%, Draw 26%, and Mallorca 23%. The Both Teams To Score – No outcome is slightly favored at 52%, while Under 2.5 goals has a 52% likelihood. These figures align with the teams’ recent performances and the historical trend of low-scoring meetings between them.

Valencia vs Mallorca prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 50% probability.

Probable Lineups Valencia vs Mallorca

VALENCIA (4-2-3-1): Agirrezabala; Correia, Tárrega, Copete, Gayà; Pepelu, Santamaría; Raba, Almeida, Danjuma; Hugo Duro.
MALLORCA (4-2-3-1): Leo Román; Maffeo, Valjent, Raíllo, Mojica; Samú Costa, Sánchez; Asano, Darder, Virgili; Muriqi.