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Prediction published on Jan 9, 2026 3:10 PM by Dario in England - FA Cup | Modified on Jan 9, 2026 3:10 PM
The FA Cup Third Round brings a London derby to the London Stadium as West Ham United host Queens Park Rangers on Sunday. The Hammers are desperate to turn around a poor run of form, while the visitors arrive with renewed confidence after a convincing win in their last outing. With both sides eager to progress, this clash promises intensity and unpredictability typical of the oldest cup competition in the world.
West Ham United enter this fixture in a worrying spell of results. They have failed to win any of their last ten matches across all competitions, drawing four and losing six. Their most recent defeat came at home, a 1-2 loss against Nottingham Forest on January 6, 2026. In their last five games, the Hammers have recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 defeats, averaging just 0.6 goals scored per match while conceding 2.2 goals on average.
Defensive frailties have been a recurring issue. The team has conceded at least one goal in each of their last 18 matches, and that trend extends to 16 consecutive home games. Despite their struggles, West Ham’s matches tend to be open affairs, with Over 1.5 total goals recorded in 29 of their last 30 fixtures. Furthermore, Over 0.5 goals in the second half have been scored in 24 of their last 25 matches, suggesting that late drama is almost guaranteed when they play.
In the FA Cup, however, the Hammers have shown glimpses of resilience. They have won at half time in their last three home matches in the competition, even though their overall form remains inconsistent. With the league campaign faltering, this cup tie could represent a crucial opportunity to restore confidence among players and supporters alike.
Queens Park Rangers approach this encounter in better shape. Their last five matches have produced 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Most recently, they delivered a commanding 3-0 victory over Sheffield Wednesday on January 4, 2026, a result that boosted morale and underlined their attacking potential.
QPR’s away performances have been lively, with Over 0.5 goals at half time in 18 of their last 20 away fixtures. However, they have also shown vulnerability early in games, having lost at half time in 8 of their last 13 away matches. This inconsistency could be a factor against a Premier League opponent, even one struggling for form.
In the FA Cup rankings, West Ham United currently sit 1st and Queens Park Rangers 2nd, but that numerical difference does not reflect the current momentum. The Hoops’ attacking rhythm and confidence could make them dangerous visitors, especially against a defense that has been leaking goals regularly.
Historically, meetings between these two London clubs have been balanced. The last head-to-head ended in a 0-0 draw on April 25, 2015. Across their previous encounters, West Ham have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats against QPR, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded per match. However, given the long gap since their last meeting, those statistics may have limited relevance to the current context.
From a tactical perspective, this match could hinge on how West Ham manage their defensive structure and whether QPR can exploit spaces on the counterattack. The Hammers’ home advantage might be offset by their fragile confidence and the pressure from supporters frustrated by recent performances. Meanwhile, QPR’s attacking form and ability to score in bursts could make them a real threat, particularly in the second half when West Ham tend to concede more frequently.
Given the trends, goals are expected. Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in high-scoring matches, with Over 2.5 goals occurring in 54% of recent games and Both Teams To Score (BTTS) hitting 54% as well. The combination of West Ham’s defensive lapses and QPR’s attacking momentum suggests that this tie could be more open than many anticipate.
All signs point to a tightly contested London derby. West Ham’s poor run and defensive instability contrast sharply with QPR’s more balanced recent performances. The Hammers will rely on home support to lift them, but the visitors’ confidence and attacking sharpness could make the difference. With both sides likely to find the net, a draw after 90 minutes appears a realistic outcome.
West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers prediction by BetMines:
Draw (X) with 26% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
West Ham United
Queens Park Rangers
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
2
8
2
8
2.5
4
6
4
6
3.5
6
4
6
4
4.5
10
0
8
2