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Prediction published on Oct 16, 2026 2:05 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Oct 16, 2026 2:05 PM
AC Milan host Atalanta in Serie A on Sunday, October 18, 2026, with kick-off at 16:00 local time at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano. Both teams arrive after Thursday wins in European competition: Milan beat Salzburg 4-0 away from home in the Europa League, while Atalanta defeated Pafos FC 3-1 in the Conference League. Milan are fifth in Serie A and unbeaten after six league matches; Atalanta are tenth, with three wins and three defeats. Their recent meetings give this fixture an added edge, as Milan have not won any of the last five head-to-head matches recorded in the supplied statistics.
AC Milan responded emphatically to their 1-1 league draw at Sassuolo. Ruben Amorim's side scored four times at Salzburg on October 15, with Alphadio Cissé hitting a hat-trick and Gonçalo Ramos adding the other goal. It was a strong reaction after Milan had drawn their previous Serie A match, and it gives them another positive result to take into this home fixture.
Milan's league record stands at three wins, three draws and no defeats. They have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per Serie A match. Across their last five matches in all competitions, they have two wins, two draws and one loss, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding 1.0. The broader scoring pattern has been consistent: their last 12 matches have each contained more than 1.5 total goals, as have their last 10 Serie A fixtures. At least one second-half goal has also been scored in each of those 10 league games.
Ramos scored after coming off the bench against Salzburg and has four goals in his last five appearances for club and country. Milan do, however, have absences to manage: Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers are sidelined with injuries. A separate trend concerns corners rather than goals, with fewer than 10.5 corners taken in each of Milan's last 17 Serie A matches.
Atalanta have also won twice since the international break, beating Venezia 3-1 in Serie A before recording the same score against Pafos FC on October 15. Eljif Elmas, Giacomo Raspadori and Gianluca Scamacca scored in the Conference League victory. Those results provide a contrast with Atalanta's last-five-match record of two wins and three defeats.
In Serie A, Atalanta have taken nine points from six matches, winning three and losing three. Their league averages are 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Looking across their last five matches in all competitions, both their scoring and conceding averages rise to 1.6. Every one of their last 10 away Serie A matches has featured more than 1.5 total goals, while the article's recent-form account notes that Atalanta have not kept a clean sheet in their last five matches.
Maurizio Sarri's side face several availability concerns. Elmas is suspended after being sent off late against Venezia. Kamaldeen Sulemana, Odilon Kossounou and Isak Hien are also unavailable. Giorgio Scalvini and Franck Kessie missed the Pafos match and are described as unlikely to return against Milan, while Raoul Bellanova, who also missed that game, could be included.
The recent head-to-head record complicates Milan's otherwise solid league outlook. From Milan's perspective, the last five meetings have brought no wins, two draws and three defeats, with an average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded. Atalanta won the latest encounter 3-2 on May 10, 2026, and have collected 10 points from their last four league meetings with Milan. Those results show why Atalanta cannot be judged on their league position alone ahead of this trip.
There is also a clear goals theme across the two teams' recent records. Milan are averaging 1.8 goals in Serie A and have just scored four in Europe, while Atalanta enter on the back of consecutive 3-1 victories. At the same time, Atalanta's recent run without a clean sheet offers Milan reason to look for chances. The article reports that both teams scored in six of the last seven meetings across all competitions, including the most recent 3-2 result.
Milan's unbeaten league start and home advantage sit alongside Atalanta's strong recent record in this fixture. Rather than pointing decisively to either side, the combination of current scoring form, Atalanta's recent concessions and the head-to-head results makes goals at both ends the most coherent angle for this Serie A match preview.
AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 58% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
AC Milan
Atalanta
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
0
10
4
6
2.5
4
6
5
5
3.5
7
3
8
2
4.5
9
1
10
0