At the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Saturday, May 24, the fixture valid for Serie A Matchday 38 sees two teams with no remaining goals in the standings: AC Milan, coached by Sérgio Conceição, and Monza, managed by Alessandro Nesta. The Rossoneri are set to close a season without European qualification — a situation they haven’t experienced since the 2015/16 campaign, which ended with a 7th-place finish. Unlike that season, Milan currently sit ninth in the table, with no mathematical chance of reaching continental qualification, as they are five points behind sixth-placed Lazio. Their last hope to qualify at least for the Europa League vanished ten days ago after a 1-0 defeat in the Coppa Italia final against Bologna. The only remaining goal for Conceição's side — with the coach expected to leave the club after this last game — is to finish the season with dignity, aiming for a home win against Monza. Their opponents are one of the weakest on paper: Monza are the only team already mathematically relegated to Serie B, with one match still to play. Nesta’s men, also facing his likely departure, have never looked competitive throughout the season. Back in early 2025, following the sale of key players such as Bondo, Maldini, Djuric, and Pablo Marí, the club seemed to have “thrown in the towel.” With both sides free from pressure and motivation, we can expect an open game — potentially full of goal chances and played at a lighter pace than typical end-of-season clashes.

AC Milan Recent Form and Key Stats

AC Milan are coming off a 3-1 loss against Roma, with a goal from João Félix, which ended a run of three consecutive Serie A wins over Venezia, Genoa, and Bologna. That defeat followed the 1-0 Coppa Italia final loss to Bologna. Milan have conceded at least one goal in their last four matches across all competitions.

After 37 rounds, Milan sit 9th in the table with 60 points (17 wins, 9 draws, 11 losses), averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game. In their last five home games — where they’ve always conceded — they’ve earned 2 wins (against Como and Bologna), 1 draw (vs Fiorentina), and 2 defeats (vs Atalanta and Lazio).

Monza Recent Form and Key Stats

Monza lost 3-1 to Empoli last weekend (goal by Birindelli), marking their 25th league defeat, with only 3 wins and 9 draws all season. In their last five matches, Monza have collected 1 win (vs Udinese) and 4 losses, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game.

Already relegated, Nesta’s side has the worst defense in Serie A with 67 goals conceded, and the second-worst attack (28 goals scored), ahead of only Lecce. On the road, they’ve won just two games all season, the last being a 2-1 victory over Udinese on May 11, after a run of ten consecutive away defeats.

AC Milan vs Monza Prediction and Tactical Overview

In the five previous Serie A meetings between these two sides, AC Milan have won four, and Monza one, with no draws. Milan have scored an average of 2.2 goals per game, compared to Monza’s 1. The first-leg match, played last November, ended 1-0 to Milan, thanks to a decisive goal by Reijnders.

At San Siro, both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities: Milan have conceded in their last four matches, while Monza have conceded in twelve straight games.

Several Milan players may use this match as a final chance to impress, either to earn a spot for next season or to attract interest from other clubs. The same applies to Monza’s players, who may want to showcase themselves and stay in Serie A with a different team next season.

That said, AC Milan are clear favorites, and a high-scoring match is possible, even with suspended striker Santi Giménez unavailable.

Concerning the prediction of AC Milan vs Monza, valid for the 38th day of Serie A, the BetMines algorithm predicts a match with at least three goals in total.

• AC Milan vs Monza prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts a match with Over 2.5 goals at 60%.
  
  
• AC Milan vs Monza prediction from the BetMines Algorithm predicts a match with Under 2.5 goals at 40%.

AC Milan vs Monza Predicted Lineups

AC MILAN (3-4-2-1): Sportiello; Thiaw, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Loftus, Reijnders, Theo Hernandez; Pulisic, Joao Felix; Jovic. Coach: Sérgio Conceição

MONZA (3-5-2): Pizzignacco; Pereira, Brorsson, Carboni; Birindelli, Akpa Akpro, Bianco, Castrovilli, Kyriakopoulos; Caprari, Keita Baldé. Coach: Alessandro Nesta