The second leg between AEK Athens and NK Celje in the UEFA Conference League last-16 round promises to be a challenging encounter for the visitors. After a heavy 4-0 defeat in the first leg, Celje must attempt a remarkable comeback against a side that has shown consistency and strength throughout the season. The Greek team, already in control of the tie, will look to maintain their unbeaten streak and secure a comfortable progression to the next round. Meanwhile, Celje will aim to restore pride and deliver a more competitive performance away from home.

AEK Athens: Form and Key Statistics

AEK Athens approach this second leg in excellent form, having drawn 2-2 against Atromitos on March 15, extending their unbeaten run to an impressive 22 matches across all competitions. Their recent record of 3 wins and 2 draws in the last five games highlights both their attacking efficiency and defensive solidity, averaging 2.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per match. In the Europa Conference League, AEK have recorded 7 wins, 5 draws, and just 1 defeat, with averages of 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.

At home, AEK have been particularly dominant, winning 10 of their last 13 competitive fixtures (D2, L1). Their ability to control matches in front of their supporters has been a key factor in their success. Another notable trend is that under 1.5 goals have been scored at half time in each of their last 10 home matches, showing a pattern of measured starts before asserting dominance in the later stages. Moreover, they have found the net in 21 of their last 22 matches, underlining their attacking consistency.

• Unbeaten in last 22 matches


• 10 wins from last 13 home games


• Under 1.5 goals at half time in last 10 home matches


• Scored in 21 of last 22 matches

With a 4-0 advantage from the first leg, AEK are in a commanding position. Even if they choose to rotate their squad, their depth and form suggest they will remain competitive and likely control the tempo of the match.

NK Celje: Form and Key Statistics

NK Celje face a monumental task after the first leg defeat but will take confidence from their 1-0 away win against Koper on March 15. That victory ended a run of inconsistent results, as their last five matches show 2 wins and 3 defeats, with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. In the Europa Conference League, Celje’s record stands at 8 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match.

Celje’s away form in the competition has been entertaining, with over 1.5 goals scored in each of their last 12 away fixtures. They tend to start matches actively, as over 0.5 goals have been scored at half time in 20 of their last 22 away games, and in 18 of their last 20 Conference League matches. Despite their attacking intent, defensive vulnerabilities have often cost them points, particularly against stronger opposition.

• Over 1.5 goals in last 12 away Conference League matches


• Over 0.5 goals at half time in 20 of last 22 away matches


• Won at half time in 6 of last 10 matches


• Average goals conceded: 1.8 per match in last five games

Celje’s challenge will be to balance their attacking approach with defensive discipline. Even if overturning the aggregate deficit seems improbable, a solid performance could restore confidence and demonstrate resilience on the European stage.

AEK Athens vs NK Celje: Tactical Overview and Prediction

This second leg is expected to follow a similar pattern to the first, with AEK Athens controlling possession and dictating the rhythm. Their strong home record and attacking consistency make them favorites to win again, though they may not need to push aggressively given their aggregate advantage. NK Celje, on the other hand, will likely adopt a more cautious approach early on, aiming to avoid another early setback while seeking opportunities on the counterattack.

The first leg’s 4-0 result showcased the gap between the two sides, but Celje’s recent domestic win suggests they can still compete with determination. Given AEK’s tendency to start conservatively at home and Celje’s attacking intent, a match with goals on both sides remains possible. However, the hosts’ superior form and confidence make them strong favorites to progress comfortably.

AEK Athens vs NK Celje prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 54% probability.