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Prediction published on Aug 28, 2026 11:03 AM by Dario in England - Premier League | Modified on Aug 28, 2026 11:03 AM
AFC Bournemouth host Everton at the Vitality Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 14:00 local time. The home side are looking to respond after opening their league campaign with a 2-1 defeat against Manchester City, while Everton arrive with two victories and two clean sheets across league and cup action. Bournemouth begin the fixture ranked 13th in the Premier League, with Everton fourth at this early stage. The numbers suggest a competitive contest: Bournemouth have avoided defeat in 19 of their last 20 matches, but Everton have scored six goals without reply in their first two games of the new campaign. With the hosts carrying a strong home record and the visitors showing encouraging attacking form, this AFC Bournemouth vs Everton preview points towards an open match in which both sides should have opportunities.
AFC Bournemouth suffered a narrow setback against Manchester City on August 23, losing 2-1 after conceding during a late spell of pressure. They had 34% possession, produced four shots on target and finished with 0.63 expected goals. Their only big chance was converted, with Marcus Tavernier scoring Bournemouth’s goal and recording two attempts alongside a team-high 0.40 xG.
That result left Bournemouth with one defeat from one Premier League match, an average of 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded. Their broader five-game sequence contains two wins, one draw and two defeats. Across those matches, the Cherries have averaged 3.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, figures that underline the potential for goalmouth action even though their league campaign has only just started.
This will be Bournemouth’s first home league fixture of the season. Their recent record at the Vitality Stadium gives them reason for confidence, as they are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League games at the ground. Six of those fixtures ended level and three produced victories, showing both their resilience and the frequency of close contests. Bournemouth have also lost only one of their last nine home matches against Everton across all competitions.
Personnel options could influence the hosts. Eli Junior Kroupi, Amine Adli, Veljko Milosavljevic and Julian Araujo are listed among the injury absentees, while Ryan Christie is expected to return to the squad following suspension. Goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio has joined on loan from Juventus, although Djordje Petrovic is expected to remain the first choice for now.
Everton have made an excellent start to the campaign. They began their Premier League schedule with a 2-0 home victory over Crystal Palace before defeating Preston North End 4-0 in the EFL Cup on August 26. That cup performance was particularly emphatic, with Everton registering 29 attempts and putting 10 of them on target.
The visitors therefore enter this game having scored six goals without conceding across their opening two matches. Their Premier League record stands at one win from one, with averages of 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. Over their last five fixtures, Everton have collected three wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 2.2 goals for and 1.0 against.
Thierno Barry has already scored four times in two appearances this season, including a hat-trick in the cup. Brennan Johnson also came off the bench to score against Preston. The availability of Iliman Ndiaye is uncertain, while Christian Norgaard, Hayden Kackney and Tim Iroegbunam are ruled out through injury.
Despite Everton’s strong opening results, their previous away league sequence provides an important note of caution. They failed to win any of their final five Premier League away games last season, recording two draws and three defeats. Everton conceded at least twice in four of those five matches, making this trip a significant test of whether their early defensive record can be maintained away from home.
Second-half goals have been a particularly consistent feature of Everton’s fixtures. At least one goal after the interval has been scored in 22 of their last 23 matches, as well as in 20 of their last 21 Premier League games. That pattern suggests the contest could become increasingly open as it progresses.
The available statistics present a finely balanced Premier League encounter. Bournemouth are assigned a 42% win probability, compared with 31% for Everton and 27% for the draw. Home advantage and the Cherries’ unbeaten nine-match league run at the Vitality Stadium support their chances, but Everton’s two convincing victories make the visitors difficult to dismiss.
Recent head-to-head numbers also favor Bournemouth overall. Their summary against Everton shows four wins, no draws and one defeat, with averages of 1.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. The latest meeting finished 1-2 on February 10, 2026, while four of the last six league encounters between these teams produced between two and four total goals.
The main question is whether Everton’s perfect defensive start can survive against a Bournemouth side returning to a ground where they have been difficult to beat. The hosts scored against Manchester City despite having limited possession, while Everton’s attacking output has already included two goals against Crystal Palace and four against Preston. At the same time, the visitors’ winless five-game away league run from the end of last season prevents them from being considered clear favorites.
The statistical markets reflect that balance. Both teams to score is rated at 54%, while the probability of over 2.5 goals is 52%. Bournemouth’s recent scoring average, Everton’s six-goal start and the repeated second-half goal pattern in the visitors’ matches all support the prospect of multiple goals. Although Everton have yet to concede this season, Bournemouth’s strong home sequence and their ability to score in the league opener suggest that this defensive record could face its toughest examination so far.
AFC Bournemouth vs Everton prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 52% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
AFC Bournemouth
Everton
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
0
10
2
8
2.5
2
8
5
5
3.5
4
6
6
4
4.5
7
3
10
0