Ajax host Willem II at the Johan Cruijff Arena on Tuesday, September 15, in an Eredivisie match between teams experiencing contrasting starts to the season. The home side are fifth after collecting three wins, one draw and one defeat, while the visitors sit 17th with no victories from their opening five league fixtures. Ajax responded emphatically to their setback against PSV Eindhoven by defeating Fortuna Sittard 5-1, extending a sequence of high-scoring performances across domestic and European competition. Willem II arrive in Amsterdam after a 1-1 draw with AZ Alkmaar, but their defensive numbers underline the size of the challenge ahead. With Ajax producing regularly in attack and the visitors conceding an average of 2.8 goals per Eredivisie game, this fixture has the statistical profile of an open contest with several scoring opportunities.

Ajax Recent Form and Key Statistics

Ajax have made a solid start to their Eredivisie campaign, recording three victories, one draw and one loss. They are averaging 2.8 goals scored per league match while conceding 1.2, numbers that demonstrate the importance of their attacking output. Their most recent performance was particularly convincing, as they won 5-1 against Fortuna Sittard on September 12.

The wider form sequence is even more productive. Ajax have won four of their last five matches and lost once, scoring an average of 3.8 goals per game during that run. Their results include a 4-0 success against SC Telstar and goal-filled Conference League qualifying victories of 5-3 and 4-2 against Sion. The exception was the 3-1 defeat to PSV Eindhoven, but the immediate response against Fortuna Sittard showed that the home team retained its attacking momentum.

Recent Ajax fixtures have consistently produced goals. More than 1.5 total goals have been recorded in each of their last 11 matches, while their previous seven games have all gone beyond 3.5 total goals. At least one second-half goal has also been scored in each of the club's last 11 fixtures. Together, those sequences point to matches that continue to offer action after the interval rather than becoming closed or controlled affairs.

Ajax have also established a strong first-half pattern. They have avoided going into half-time behind in 27 of their last 28 Eredivisie matches and in 29 of their previous 31 games across all competitions. At home in the league, they have led at the break in nine of their last 14 appearances. That record suggests the hosts are capable of taking control early, particularly against an opponent whose defensive record has been one of its main concerns.

Willem II Recent Form and Key Statistics

Willem II are still searching for their first Eredivisie victory of the season. Their league record stands at two draws and three defeats, with an average of 1.0 goal scored and 2.8 conceded per match. They have therefore allowed almost three times as many goals as they have scored, leaving them 17th before this difficult trip to Amsterdam.

The visitors did earn a 1-1 draw against AZ Alkmaar on September 11, but their broader five-match sequence remains problematic. Willem II have registered no wins, two draws and three defeats, again averaging one goal for and 2.8 against. Heavy 4-1 losses against NEC Nijmegen and Go Ahead Eagles highlighted their defensive vulnerability, while a 2-2 draw with SC Heerenveen was another match in which they were unable to keep the score down.

There is still an attacking statistic that offers the away side some encouragement: Willem II have scored at least once in each of their last 17 away matches. They have also been ahead at half-time in seven of their previous 10 away fixtures. Those figures suggest the visitors cannot be dismissed as a scoring threat, even though the overall results and defensive averages make this one of their toughest assignments of the campaign.

The short recovery period after Friday's draw adds another element to Willem II's preparation. The original match context indicates that the visitors are expected to adopt a defensive approach against an Ajax side likely to spend long periods testing their back line. However, Willem II's extended away scoring sequence means they may still contribute if spaces emerge during an attacking home performance.

Ajax vs Willem II Match Analysis

The statistical comparison gives Ajax a clear advantage. The hosts have a 67% win probability, compared with 20% for a draw and 13% for a Willem II victory. Current league form supports that assessment: Ajax have won three of five Eredivisie games, whereas Willem II have yet to record a win and are conceding 2.8 goals per match.

Previous meetings also favour the Amsterdam side. The supplied head-to-head summary records five Ajax victories, no draws and no defeats, with Ajax averaging 2.4 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded in those encounters. The latest listed meeting finished 1-2 on April 13, 2025. That history reinforces the home team's position as favourite, although the present scoring trends may be more relevant to the likely shape of this particular match.

The strongest theme is the potential for goals. Ajax are averaging 3.8 scored across their last five matches, and each of their last seven fixtures has contained more than 3.5 total goals. Willem II, meanwhile, have conceded an average of 2.8 in both their seasonal record and recent five-game sample. The visitors have also found the net in 17 consecutive away games, creating the possibility that both teams contribute to the total.

Ajax should be expected to take the initiative and apply sustained pressure, with their recent results showing an ability to turn attacking superiority into large winning margins. Willem II's task will be to limit that pressure while looking for opportunities to extend their away scoring run. The available data assigns a 58% probability to more than 2.5 goals, and that market fits both Ajax's prolific recent form and Willem II's defensive difficulties.

Ajax vs Willem II prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 58% probability.