At the Estadio Mendizorrotza, on Saturday, May 3rd, home side Deportivo Alaves host Atletico Madrid in the second advance fixture of La Liga Matchday 34. Eduardo Coudet’s men are coming off a vital 1-0 win over Real Sociedad, which lifted them out of the relegation zone — now sitting 17th with 34 points, just two ahead of Las Palmas. With only five games left in the season, every match is crucial, especially against a top-three side like Atletico Madrid. Despite the difficult challenge ahead, there are reasons for Alaves to stay optimistic. They’ve won the last two head-to-head clashes with Atletico without conceding a single goal, and in the reverse fixture earlier this season, they dominated long stretches of the game before collapsing in the final 20 minutes. However, Alaves still hold one of the worst home scoring records in La Liga and are up against the league’s best away defense. Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, arrive in Vitoria-Gasteiz on the back of a comfortable 3-0 win over Rayo Vallecano, which helped solidify their third place behind Real Madrid and Barcelona. With a six-point cushion over fourth-placed Athletic Club, Diego Simeone’s side looks set for another season in the Champions League. Out of contention for the La Liga title and eliminated from other competitions, the Colchoneros may use these final games to prepare for the upcoming FIFA Club World Cup, scheduled for June and July, which could be their only chance to salvage a disappointing season.

Alaves Recent Form and Key Stats

Alaves have shown signs of life in recent matches. After a narrow 1-0 defeat to Real Madrid, they earned a 1-1 draw at Sevilla and followed it up with a 1-0 victory over Real Sociedad, thanks to Argentine full-back Nahuel Tenaglia, who scored his second goal of the season. That marked Alaves' eighth league win, enough to temporarily escape the drop zone.

The team’s biggest problem has been its offense. At home, Alaves have scored just 12 goals in 16 matches (0.75 per game), the second-worst tally in the league ahead of only Real Valladolid. With 19 home points (5 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses), they have managed just 2 wins in their last 10 home games — both coming against Villarreal and Real Sociedad.

Atletico Madrid Recent Form and Key Stats

After a surprising 1-0 defeat to Las Palmas, Atletico Madrid responded strongly with a 3-0 home win against Rayo Vallecano, thanks to goals from Alexander Sorloth, Conor Gallagher, and Julián Álvarez. That result came after convincing victories over Sevilla and Real Valladolid, meaning the Rojiblancos have taken 9 points from their last 4 La Liga matches.

Defensively, Simeone's men remain one of the most solid sides in the league, having conceded just 27 goals (0.82 per game), second only to Athletic Club. They also boast the third-best attack, with 56 goals scored (1.7 per game). Notably, Atletico have conceded the fewest away goals in the league — 13 in 16 matches — although they’ve won just 1 of their last 6 away games (3 losses, 2 draws).

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Tactical Overview

From a motivational standpoint, this match is far more important for Alaves, who are fighting for survival after finishing 10th last season. Historical form slightly favors them, with two consecutive home wins over Atletico Madrid (2-0 and 1-0).

However, this game pits one of the lowest-scoring home sides against the stingiest away defense. Alaves may find it difficult to score even a single goal, unlike in previous years.

Given the lack of real pressure on Atletico and Simeone’s rotation strategy — giving minutes to squad players — it's unlikely the visitors will go all out. Instead, they may look to capitalize on set-pieces or counter-attacks.

As for team news, Coudet will be without Moroccan defender Abqar, while Simeone has a fully fit squad at his disposal. Expect some rotation, with Antoine Griezmann potentially starting on the bench to make way for Sorloth.

For the reasons seen so far, the BetMines algorithm prediction for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid predicts a match with few emotions that can end with less than three goals in total. 

• BetMines Algorithm prediction for Alaves vs AtleticoMadrid predicts a match with Over 2.5 goals at 46%
• BetMines Algorithm prediction for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid predicts a match with Under 2.5 goals at 54%.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Predicted Lineups

Alaves (4-2-3-1): Sivera; Tenaglia, Garces, Mourino, Sanchez; Guevara, Blanco; Conechny, Guridi, Vicente; Kike Garcia. Manager: Eduardo Coudet

Atletico Madrid (4-4-2): Oblak; Galán, Lenglet, Le Normand, Llorente; Gallagher, Barrios, De Paul, Giuliano Simeone; Julián Álvarez, Sorloth. Manager: Diego Simeone