Albania host Finland at Arena Kombëtare on November 12 in matchday five of UEFA Nations League C1. Albania lead the group with nine points, two ahead of both Belarus and third-placed Finland. The visitors can narrow that gap with a result, while Albania have the chance to strengthen their position at the top. Their most recent meeting gives this fixture an added edge: Finland won 2-1 on October 3. Goals at both ends have featured in three of the last four competitive meetings between the sides, making their attacking records particularly relevant to this Albania vs Finland preview.

Albania's Recent Form and Key Stats

Albania responded to their defeat against Finland by beating San Marino 2-1 at home on October 6. Their UEFA Nations League record now stands at three wins and one loss, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match. Across their last five matches in all competitions, they have won three and lost two, scoring 1.6 goals per game and conceding 0.8.

Home results have played an important part in Albania's group campaign. They have won their last two UEFA Nations League matches on their own ground, scoring exactly twice in each. That gives them a route back to winning ways against the side responsible for their only defeat in this League C1 campaign. Albania have also avoided a half-time deficit in 18 of their last 20 Nations League matches and have led at the interval in six of their last ten home games in the competition.

Despite that scoring form, Albania's matches have rarely produced very high totals. Each of their last 22 matches has finished with fewer than four goals, as have their last 20 home fixtures and last 14 Nations League games. Those runs do not rule out goals for both sides: Albania's latest win finished 2-1, matching the scoreline of their defeat to Finland three days earlier.

Finland's Recent Form and Key Stats

Finland arrive after a 1-0 defeat away to Belarus on October 6. Before that setback, they had gone three UEFA Nations League matches unbeaten, recording two wins and a draw. Their group record is now two wins, one draw and one loss. They average 2.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match in the competition, and the supplied match context identifies them as League C1's highest-scoring side.

Finland's broader five-match record is two wins, one draw and two defeats, with averages of 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Their away results are less encouraging: they have won only one of their last five competitive matches on the road. The Belarus defeat brought an end to their unbeaten run in the group and leaves them looking to repeat their October victory over Albania in another away fixture.

Draws have been uncommon in Finland's recent results. They have avoided one in 20 of their last 21 away matches and in 29 of their last 31 matches overall. They have also trailed at half-time in seven of their last 11 away games. Those figures underline the contrast between Finland's productive Nations League attack and the difficulties they have faced away from home.

Albania vs Finland Match Analysis

Albania's group lead, three wins from four Nations League matches and two straight home victories in the competition make their home form a central factor. Finland, though, have already shown they can beat these opponents. In the 2-1 meeting on October 3, Albania scored once but conceded twice; Albania then conceded again in their 2-1 win over San Marino.

The head-to-head scoring pattern also matters. Both teams scored in three of the last four competitive meetings, and Finland have found the net in four successive competitive games against Albania. Their 1-0 loss to Belarus shows that a goal is not guaranteed, especially given their recent away record. Even so, their 2.3-goal Nations League average provides a clear counterpoint to that single result.

Albania's long sequence of matches under 3.5 goals suggests this need not become a high-scoring contest. A game with a goal for each side would still fit that trend, just as both of this fixture's recent 2-1 results did. The question is whether Albania can turn their home scoring streak into another win or whether Finland's attack can again make the difference between the teams.

Albania vs Finland prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 55% probability.