AlbinoLeffe host Novara on Sunday, October 18, in a Serie C: Girone A fixture between two sides searching for greater consistency. Kick-off is scheduled for 15:30 local time at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo. AlbinoLeffe sit eighth after alternating wins and defeats across their last five matches, while 14th-placed Novara have won only once in the same span. Their most recent meeting finished 2-2, but the teams’ current scoring records present a more cautious picture ahead of this AlbinoLeffe vs Novara match preview.

AlbinoLeffe’s Recent Form and Key Stats

AlbinoLeffe have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches. That sequence captures the difficulty of building momentum: after beating Cittadella, they fell 3-2 away to Lumezzane on October 10. Their season record in Serie C: Girone A is similarly balanced, with three wins, three draws and three defeats.

Goals have been a prominent feature of AlbinoLeffe’s recent results. Across those five games, they have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, equivalent to 11 at one end and 10 at the other. Those figures are higher than their season averages of 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded. The recent run followed a 0-0 draw away to Dolomiti Bellunesi, and the 3-2 defeat against Lumezzane showed both their ability to score and the defensive issues that can leave a result uncertain.

The home-match trends add an important qualification to those high recent totals. Under 3.5 goals have been scored in AlbinoLeffe’s last 10 home league matches, and each of those 10 fixtures has also featured under 1.5 first-half goals. Their latest overall matches have produced plenty of goals, but that pattern has not translated into four-goal home games during this 10-match stretch. Whether their recent scoring rate carries over into this fixture is one of the main questions for the hosts.

Novara’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Novara arrive after a 2-0 home defeat to Cittadella on October 10. They have recorded one win, two draws and two losses in their last five matches, leaving them 14th in Serie C: Girone A. Their season record stands at two wins, three draws and four defeats. Although they won their most recent away game before the Cittadella loss, their results have not yet settled into a consistent run.

Scoring has been more difficult for Novara than for their hosts. They have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over the last five matches; across the league season, those figures are 0.9 scored and 1.3 conceded. Novara failed to score against Cittadella, though they had found the net four times across their two preceding games against Dolomiti Bellunesi and Carpi. Those two fixtures also brought three goals conceded, so the recent evidence does not point exclusively toward a quiet match.

Novara have been behind at half-time in each of their last three league matches, a concern when facing a side that has scored frequently of late. Even so, AlbinoLeffe’s home first-half record offers a different perspective: their last 10 league games at home have all stayed below two goals before the interval. At the other end, three of Novara’s last 14 away league matches have finished without a goal for either team, as have two of their last 10 matches overall. Those scoreless fixtures are a reminder that their games do not always follow the more open pattern of their recent meetings with Dolomiti Bellunesi and Carpi.

AlbinoLeffe vs Novara Match Analysis

The previous meetings offer little separation between AlbinoLeffe and Novara. From AlbinoLeffe’s perspective, the head-to-head summary is one win, three draws and one defeat, with averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their latest encounter ended 2-2 on February 11, 2026. Another competitive game would fit that history, although one 2-2 result does not establish how many goals this meeting will produce.

AlbinoLeffe’s recent attack is the strongest argument for a higher-scoring contest, but their 10-match home trend and Novara’s season scoring average pull the analysis in the other direction. The visitors have also managed just one win in five, while AlbinoLeffe’s own mixed results make a decisive home advantage difficult to take for granted. The supplied win probabilities underline how close the outcome looks: 37% for AlbinoLeffe, 31% for a draw and 32% for Novara. With neither side a clear favourite, the goal total provides a more coherent focus than the match result.

For this Serie C: Girone A preview, the key contrast is between AlbinoLeffe’s lively last five games and the steadier pattern at home, where none of their last 10 league fixtures has reached four goals. Novara’s average of less than one goal scored per league game adds weight to a cautious assessment. The supplied over/under figures place under 2.5 goals at 61%, compared with 39% for over 2.5, despite the hosts’ recent high-scoring spell.

AlbinoLeffe vs Novara prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 61% probability.