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Prediction published on Nov 1, 2025 9:02 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie C: Girone A | Modified on Nov 1, 2025 10:08 PM
The Monday night fixture in Serie C Group A will see Alcione Milano host Aurora Pro Patria in a match that promises to be tighter than the table might suggest. The Milan-based side are looking to bounce back from a mixed run of results, while the visitors from Busto Arsizio aim to continue their gradual improvement under coach Greco. The game is scheduled for Monday, November 3, at 20:30, and both teams will be eager to secure valuable points for very different reasons.
Alcione enter this round sitting in a respectable fifth place in Serie C Group A, a position that reflects their solid start to the campaign. Their recent 1-1 draw against Giana Erminio on October 26 extended a run that now reads two wins, one draw, and two defeats in their last five matches. The team has averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in that period, showing a balanced but cautious approach.
Across the season, Alcione’s record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with an average of 1.1 goals scored per match and 0.7 conceded. Their defensive organization has been a key strength, though they have struggled to impose themselves early in games, having trailed at half-time in their last three home fixtures. Despite that, the team’s overall consistency has kept them in the upper part of the standings, and a win here would consolidate their playoff ambitions.
Coach Greco has been working with a largely new and restructured squad compared to last season. After an initial adjustment period, the results now seem to validate his tactical ideas. While victories have not come easily, defeats have become increasingly rare, suggesting a side that is learning to manage matches more effectively. Playing at home, Alcione will look to control possession and exploit their compact defensive shape to frustrate Pro Patria’s attack.
Pro Patria travel to Milan in a difficult position, currently 20th in the table and still fighting to escape the relegation zone. Their most recent outing ended in a 0-0 draw against Ospitaletto on October 26, a result that extended their unbeaten run to three matches but also highlighted their ongoing scoring problems. In their last five games, the team has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 defeat, averaging just 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
Over the course of the season, Pro Patria’s record stands at 1 win, 5 draws, and 5 losses, with an average of 0.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. Their attack has been one of the weakest in the group, with only eight goals in eleven matches. Even so, the team has shown signs of tactical improvement, becoming harder to beat and more disciplined defensively. Coach Greco’s work is beginning to bear fruit, as the side now looks more compact and organized, even if the cutting edge in the final third remains elusive.
Interestingly, Pro Patria’s recent matches have tended to be low-scoring affairs. Under 0.5 total goals have been recorded in three of their last ten league games, and two of their last ten away fixtures have also ended with fewer than one goal scored. This trend underlines their cautious approach and the difficulty they face in turning draws into wins. Against Alcione, they will likely rely on a solid defensive block and quick transitions to try to snatch a result.
Historically, this fixture has been tight and low on goals. The last head-to-head meeting ended 0-0 on April 6, 2025, while Alcione hold a slight edge overall with 1 win and 1 draw in their previous two encounters, scoring an average of 1.0 goal per game and conceding none. Both sides have shown defensive discipline this season, and given their current form, another close contest seems likely.
Alcione’s home advantage could prove decisive, especially as they seek to reassert themselves after a series of inconsistent performances. Their ability to maintain compactness and capitalize on set pieces may be key against a Pro Patria side that struggles to score. On the other hand, the visitors’ recent resilience and improved organization suggest they will not be easy to break down. Expect a tactical battle with few clear chances and a strong emphasis on defensive solidity from both teams.
Given the statistical trends, including Alcione’s modest scoring rate and Pro Patria’s low offensive output, this match could follow the pattern of recent encounters — tight, cautious, and decided by fine margins. The hosts will aim to exploit their superior league position and home support, while the visitors will focus on containment and counterattacks.
The most likely outcome is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% probability. Both teams have shown defensive discipline and limited attacking efficiency, suggesting a low-scoring affair at the Arena Civica.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Alcione
Pro Patria
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
1
9
1.5
4
6
2
8
2.5
9
1
4
6
3.5
10
0
5
5
4.5
10
0
6
4