The Liga de Expansión MX Apertura 2026 continues during the international window as Alebrijes de Oaxaca host CA La Paz on September 25. The match is scheduled for 01:00 local time at the Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca. This matchday 10 contest brings together teams experiencing contrasting campaigns: Alebrijes are 13th, while CA La Paz occupy second place. The visitors have collected 17 points, seven more than their hosts, but the home side still have an opportunity to improve their position during the closing stretch of the tournament. Recent form and the head-to-head record favor CA La Paz, although the match probabilities give Alebrijes a 50% chance of winning, compared with 23% for a draw and 27% for an away victory. With the hosts showing encouraging results in their latest home appearances and the visitors arriving unbeaten across five matches, the contest presents an intriguing contrast between home resilience and stronger overall form.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca Recent Form and Key Statistics

Alebrijes de Oaxaca approach this home fixture after losing 3-0 against Cancún on September 20. That result continued an inconsistent period in which they have registered one victory, one draw and three defeats across their last five matches. During that sequence, Alebrijes have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game, highlighting the gap between their attacking output and the number of chances converted by their opponents.

Their season record in the Liga de Expansión MX stands at three wins, one draw and five losses. Their tournament averages follow a similar pattern to their recent numbers, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match. Finding greater consistency at both ends will therefore be important against an opponent averaging more than two goals per game.

Despite those overall figures, Alebrijes have produced better results at home recently. They have taken seven points from their last three home matches, winning two of those fixtures without conceding. Both victories came by the minimum margin, demonstrating their ability to protect a narrow lead when they establish control of a home game. Their scoring ceiling remains a concern, however, as the available information indicates that they have not scored more than once in their home fixtures during this run of analysis.

The hosts also have a difficult historical record against CA La Paz. They have never defeated the visitors in the recorded meetings between the teams, producing two draws and three losses. Alebrijes average 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded in this matchup. Their most recent encounter, played on March 21, 2026, ended in a 4-0 result, further underlining the challenge awaiting the home side.

CA La Paz Recent Form and Key Statistics

CA La Paz travel to Oaxaca as the second-placed team in the Liga de Expansión MX. They are four points behind leaders Atlético Morelia and enter this contest following a 3-1 victory over Correcaminos UAT on September 19. That win formed part of an impressive five-match sequence containing three victories, two draws and no defeats.

The visitors have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across those five games. Their full season record is five wins, two draws and two defeats, accompanied by averages of 2.2 goals for and 1.1 against. Those numbers give CA La Paz a clear statistical advantage over an Alebrijes team that has scored only 0.8 goals per match in both its recent run and the tournament as a whole.

CA La Paz have also shown an ability to establish themselves early in matches. They have avoided being behind at half-time in 18 of their last 20 games, including the same number across their Liga de Expansión MX fixtures. The original match information also notes that they have scored first in almost all of their recent away games, a pattern that could be significant against hosts who have struggled whenever opponents create a clear attacking advantage.

Second-half action has been another regular feature of CA La Paz matches. At least one goal has been scored after the interval in 20 of their last 22 games, with that trend also applying specifically to their Liga de Expansión MX schedule. Their attacking average, current unbeaten sequence and positive head-to-head history provide the visitors with several reasons for confidence, even though the match win probabilities make Alebrijes the numerical favorites.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz Match Analysis

This fixture presents a clear clash between Alebrijes' recent home resistance and CA La Paz's superior tournament form. The hosts have earned seven points from their previous three games in Oaxaca and kept clean sheets in both victories. However, their latest 3-0 defeat and record of three losses in five matches show that their performances have remained uneven. Their average of two goals conceded across the last five fixtures may be particularly concerning against one of the most productive attacks represented in the supplied statistics.

CA La Paz bring stronger momentum after going unbeaten in five matches and scoring an average of 2.2 goals during that period. They also hold the better season record and have never lost to Alebrijes in the available head-to-head history. The visitors' tendency to avoid trailing at half-time suggests that the hosts may need patience, while the repeated presence of second-half goals in CA La Paz matches points toward a contest that could open up after the break.

The goals data supports the possibility of an eventful game. The probability of over 2.5 goals is listed at 60%, while both teams scoring carries a 61% probability. Alebrijes' low scoring average means a goal from the home side cannot be taken for granted, but CA La Paz's 2.2-goal attacking rate and Alebrijes' defensive averages create a credible route to three or more total goals. The 4-0 scoreline in the latest meeting and the visitors' average of 2.4 goals in the head-to-head record add further support to a higher-scoring scenario.

Although the home-win probability reflects Alebrijes' recent results on their own ground, CA La Paz appear better equipped on the evidence of current form, season performance and previous meetings. The key question is whether Alebrijes can reproduce the defensive discipline seen in their two narrow home victories. If they cannot, the visitors' attacking consistency and strong second-half trends could shape the outcome.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 60% probability.