Alebrijes de Oaxaca host Correcaminos UAT on October 9 as the Apertura 2026 campaign in Mexico’s Liga de Expansión MX approaches its final stretch. The match is scheduled for 01:00 local time at the Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca. Correcaminos are one point outside the qualification places, while Alebrijes trail the final qualification spot by seven points with 15 still available. That leaves the visitors closer to their immediate objective, but both sides have reason to chase a result. Their recent form, contrasting league records and goal trends set up an intriguing Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos UAT match preview.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca Recent Form and Key Stats

Alebrijes de Oaxaca sit 14th in the Liga de Expansión MX rankings after a difficult run. They have won once and lost four times in their last five matches, scoring an average of 0.6 goals and conceding 2.8 per game across that sequence. Their latest result was a 4-0 defeat to Piratas on October 4. With no win in their last three matches, Alebrijes need a change in form to keep their qualification hopes alive.

Their season record stands at three wins, one draw and seven defeats. Across those league games, Alebrijes have averaged 0.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. The gap between those figures underlines the challenge facing the home side: they must find more goals while limiting the chances they allow. Seven points separate them from the last qualification place, and only 15 points remain available.

There is a notable pattern later in Alebrijes matches. At least one second-half goal in the match has been recorded in 18 of their last 20 Liga de Expansión MX fixtures. That statistic covers goals by either team, rather than goals scored by Alebrijes alone. Given their recent difficulty in front of goal, it offers no guarantee that the hosts will be the side to score after the break, but it does suggest their games have rarely ended without second-half scoring.

Correcaminos UAT Recent Form and Key Stats

Correcaminos UAT are ninth in the league rankings and arrive one point short of the qualification positions. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 draw against Cruz Azul Hidalgo on October 3. They have now gone two matches without conceding, although their last five results show a mixed spell overall: one win, two draws and two defeats. During those five games, they averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded per match.

Across the season, Correcaminos have recorded four wins, four draws and three losses, with averages of 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. They have scored more regularly than Alebrijes over the campaign, but their recent five-match scoring average is lower than their season figure. A victory here could strengthen their qualification position; the goalless result last time out shows why turning opportunities into goals remains important.

The visitors’ away-match statistics are striking. Their last six Liga de Expansión MX away games have each featured over 3.5 total goals, and each of their last 10 away matches has contained at least one goal after half-time. Across all venues, 36 of their last 40 league matches have also featured a second-half goal. These are match totals involving both teams, not scoring records for Correcaminos alone. The 0-0 draw with Cruz Azul Hidalgo is a reminder that a busy away-goal pattern does not make another high-scoring result certain.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos UAT Match Analysis

The qualification picture adds urgency to this meeting. Correcaminos are within a point of the relevant places, whereas Alebrijes have a seven-point gap to close. Recent form also favors the visitors: Alebrijes have suffered four defeats in five games, compared with two for Correcaminos. Yet the supplied win probabilities give the home side a 53% chance of victory, illustrating that the league rankings and recent results do not tell the entire story of this fixture.

The head-to-head figures provide another counterweight to current form. Alebrijes have won 14 of 28 meetings covered by the broader record, compared with seven wins for Correcaminos. In the supplied five-match head-to-head summary from Alebrijes’ perspective, the home side have three wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. The latest listed meeting finished 1-3 on April 18, 2026. Those results give useful context, though neither sample changes the teams’ current league records.

Goals are the clearest theme in the present statistics. Alebrijes have conceded an average of 2.8 per game over their last five, while Correcaminos’ six most recent league away fixtures have all passed the 3.5-goal mark. Both teams also have long-running second-half goal trends. Against that, Alebrijes’ scoring average is low, and Correcaminos come into the match after two clean sheets, including a 0-0 draw. The balance is between the visitors’ recent defensive improvement and an away record in which matches have repeatedly produced several goals.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos UAT prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 55% probability.