The final round of the Liga de Expansión MX Apertura 2025 brings a clash between two sides already out of playoff contention but eager to end the campaign on a positive note. Alebrijes de Oaxaca host Correcaminos UAT on Friday, November 7, in what promises to be a competitive yet open encounter. Although neither team has much at stake, pride and momentum will be key motivators as they look to close the season with a victory. The odds slightly favor the home side, largely due to Correcaminos’ defensive struggles throughout the tournament.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Seeking a Positive Finish

Alebrijes have shown notable improvement in recent weeks, climbing out of the bottom two positions in the table. Despite their 3-1 defeat to Tampico Madero on November 2, the Oaxacan side had previously gone four matches unbeaten, collecting two wins and two draws. Their recent form reflects a more balanced approach, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five fixtures. Across the season, they have registered 3 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game.

At home, Alebrijes have been more competitive, often relying on their organized midfield and quick transitions to create chances. The team’s motivation remains high, as they aim to secure a fourth victory of the campaign and give their fans something to celebrate. Their head-to-head record against Correcaminos is slightly favorable, with three wins and two defeats in their last five meetings, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Given their recent progress and the visitors’ defensive frailties, Alebrijes will look to take control early and dictate the tempo at home.

Correcaminos UAT: Defensive Woes Continue

For Correcaminos UAT, the 2025 Apertura has been a season to forget. The team currently sits 14th in the standings, just below Alebrijes, with a record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats. Their defensive record is the worst in the league, having conceded 34 goals so far—an average of 2.6 per match. Their latest outing ended in a 0-2 loss to Mineros de Zacatecas on November 1, extending a poor run that has seen them lose four of their last five games. During that stretch, they have allowed an alarming 3.4 goals per game while scoring just one on average.

Correcaminos’ away form has been particularly concerning. They have not led at halftime in their last 19 away matches and have lost the first half in four consecutive away games. Moreover, they have conceded at least one goal in the second half of each of their last 11 away fixtures. Despite these numbers, the team continues to show flashes of attacking intent, with Over 1.5 total goals occurring in 36 of their last 38 league matches. However, their inability to maintain defensive discipline has consistently undermined their efforts to secure results on the road.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos UAT: Match Analysis and Outlook

This fixture may not influence the playoff picture, but it still carries significance for both sides. Alebrijes will want to reward their fans with a strong home performance, while Correcaminos aim to avoid finishing bottom of the table. The hosts’ recent improvement and the visitors’ defensive instability suggest a match with several scoring opportunities. Historically, encounters between these two have been evenly contested, though Alebrijes’ current momentum and home advantage could tilt the balance in their favor.

Correcaminos’ tendency to concede early and often, combined with Alebrijes’ desire to end on a high, points toward an open game. Both teams have averaged over one goal per match this season, and given the visitors’ record of high-scoring affairs, fans could be treated to an entertaining contest. Still, Alebrijes’ more compact structure and better recent form make them the likelier side to claim all three points.

BetMines Prediction: Alebrijes de Oaxaca win (1) with 59% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 20%, while a Correcaminos UAT win (2) stands at 21%.