Tools
Alebrijes
1 - 0
FT
Tepatitlán de Morelos
Prediction published on Aug 11, 2026 11:07 PM by Dario in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX | Modified on Aug 11, 2026 11:07 PM
Alebrijes de Oaxaca face Tepatitlán de Morelos on August 14, 2026, in an Apertura 2026 match between two teams seeking early improvement in Liga de Expansión MX. After three rounds, Alebrijes occupy 12th place with one victory and two defeats, while Tepatitlán sit 16th after losing all three of their league fixtures. The hosts arrive with renewed confidence following their first win of the tournament, whereas the visitors are still looking for their first point. Although the early standings favor Alebrijes, the available head-to-head figures indicate that Tepatitlán have generally held the advantage in recent meetings, adding another layer of uncertainty to this contest.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca earned an important result on August 6, beating Tlaxcala 0-2. That victory offered an encouraging response after an inconsistent sequence and left their Apertura record at one win and two defeats. Their league averages currently stand at 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match, showing that there is still room for improvement at both ends of the pitch despite the positive result against Tlaxcala.
Across their last five matches in all listed competitions, Alebrijes have collected two wins and suffered three defeats. During that period, they have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Those numbers reflect a side capable of creating enough opportunities to win matches but not yet delivering consistent defensive control. The clean sheet in their latest game could therefore be particularly valuable as they prepare to meet an opponent struggling badly for goals.
The broader scoring trends surrounding Alebrijes point toward matches that usually produce some activity. Their last 11 Liga de Expansión MX fixtures have all featured over 1.5 total goals. In addition, at least one second-half goal has been scored in 18 of their previous 20 league games, with the same pattern also appearing in 18 of their last 20 matches overall. This suggests that the contest may remain open after the interval even if the opening stages are more measured.
Home form nevertheless represents a concern. Alebrijes have been behind at half-time in each of their last three home league matches, while the source article also records a three-game home run without a victory, consisting of two defeats and one draw. Facing the division’s 16th-placed side presents an opportunity to end that sequence, but the hosts will need to avoid another slow start.
Tepatitlán de Morelos enter this fixture under considerable pressure after opening the league campaign with three consecutive defeats. Their current Liga de Expansión MX averages are 0.3 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per match. With only one goal across those three games, attacking production has been limited, while the defensive record has made it extremely difficult to turn matches in their favor.
Their latest result was a heavy 0-5 defeat against CA La Paz on August 8. That setback extended their winless start and underlined the size of the response required in this away fixture. Looking at their last five matches, Tepatitlán have recorded one victory and four losses, scoring an average of 0.8 goals while conceding 2.4 per game. Compared with Alebrijes’ recent figures, the visitors arrive with the weaker defensive average and the less productive attack.
There is also evidence of scoring problems on the road. Tepatitlán have failed to score in three of their last 11 away matches in Liga de Expansión MX. That statistic does not mean another blank is certain, but it is relevant alongside their average of only 0.3 goals per league match this season. Recovering from the five-goal defeat will require greater resistance as well as a clearer threat in the attacking third.
Despite their current difficulties, Tepatitlán can take some encouragement from the supplied head-to-head summary. Across the five listed meetings from Alebrijes’ perspective, the record is one Alebrijes win, one draw and three defeats. Alebrijes averaged 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in that sequence, so the visitors have enjoyed the stronger overall record. However, the latest head-to-head encounter, played on April 4, 2026, finished 2-0, giving the hosts a more recent reference point as they approach this meeting.
This Liga de Expansión MX preview brings together two contrasting situations. Alebrijes have just secured a 0-2 win and now return home with an opportunity to build momentum. Tepatitlán, by contrast, must react after three league defeats and a 0-5 loss in their most recent match. The difference in current defensive numbers is notable: the hosts have conceded an average of 1.7 league goals per game, while the visitors are allowing 3.0.
Alebrijes’ challenge will be turning their latest away success into a stronger home performance. Their run of three consecutive home league matches in which they trailed at half-time warns against complacency. If they again allow the opposition to establish an early advantage, Tepatitlán’s poor start may become less relevant. A more controlled first half would give the hosts a better platform to exploit the visitors’ defensive problems later in the game.
For Tepatitlán, the priority is to become more competitive after conceding five times against CA La Paz. Their historical advantage in the supplied head-to-head sample provides encouragement, but current form is much less reassuring. With four defeats in their last five matches and an average of 2.4 goals conceded during that run, the visitors need a substantial improvement to collect their first league points.
The statistical profile leaves room for a competitive match rather than a straightforward conclusion. Alebrijes have the stronger immediate momentum and a healthier attacking average over the last five games, while Tepatitlán possess the better record across the listed recent meetings. The hosts’ long sequence of league fixtures with over 1.5 total goals, together with the frequent second-half scoring pattern, also indicates that decisive moments may arrive as the match develops. Early discipline, defensive stability and the ability to capitalize on mistakes are therefore likely to shape this Apertura 2026 encounter.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Alebrijes
Tepatitlán de Morelos
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
1
9
3
7
2.5
5
5
4
6
3.5
8
2
4
6
4.5
9
1
6
4