The regular phase of the 2025 Apertura Liga de Expansión MX is reaching its final stretch, and one of the key fixtures of the penultimate round will see Alebrijes de Oaxaca host Tepatitlán de Morelos at the Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca on October 24. Both sides are still in contention for a playoff spot, making this encounter crucial for their postseason hopes. The home team recently earned a vital away win against the reigning champions, Universidad Guadalajara, while Tepatitlán suffered a setback at home against Cancún FC. With the standings still tight, every point counts as the race for the Liguilla intensifies.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Form and Key Stats

Alebrijes currently sit in 13th place in the Liga de Expansión MX table, having collected 11 points from 11 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats). Despite their position, the team showed resilience in their recent 0-1 away victory over Universidad Guadalajara on October 18, a result that kept their playoff hopes alive. Over their last five matches, Alebrijes have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. However, their home form remains a major concern — they are still searching for their first home win of the season.

Defensively, Alebrijes have struggled throughout the campaign, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. Their attack has been inconsistent, managing only 1.2 goals on average. Interestingly, there has been at least one goal scored in each of their last 40 league matches, highlighting their tendency to be involved in open games. Yet, their inability to capitalize on home advantage could prove costly against a side that thrives on the road.

Historically, Alebrijes have found it difficult to compete against Tepatitlán. In their last five head-to-head meetings, they have managed just one win while losing four, scoring an average of 0.4 goals per game and conceding 2.4. Their most recent encounter ended in a heavy 4-0 defeat on April 12, 2025, underlining the gap between the two sides in recent seasons.

Tepatitlán de Morelos: Form and Key Stats

Tepatitlán de Morelos enter this fixture in 6th place with 17 points, boasting a record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses. Their campaign has been marked by attacking consistency, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Despite their recent 1-2 home defeat to Cancún FC, Tepatitlán remain one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the division. Over their last five matches, they have registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats, scoring 1.6 goals per game while conceding 2.0.

Known for their offensive approach, Tepatitlán often find success through quick transitions and clinical finishing. They have scored at least two goals in several recent fixtures, and their away performances have been particularly strong this season. Facing an Alebrijes side that has conceded multiple goals in three of their last five home matches, Tepatitlán will look to exploit defensive gaps and secure a result that could solidify their playoff position.

With the tournament nearing its conclusion, Tepatitlán cannot afford another slip-up. A victory in Oaxaca would not only strengthen their top-six standing but also provide a psychological boost ahead of the final two rounds. Their attacking depth and ability to perform under pressure make them slight favorites heading into this clash.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: Match Analysis

This matchup brings together two teams with contrasting home and away dynamics. Alebrijes have struggled to impose themselves at the Estadio Tecnológico, while Tepatitlán have proven to be a resilient and effective side on their travels. The hosts will rely on their recent momentum from the win over Universidad Guadalajara, but their defensive vulnerabilities remain a concern. In contrast, Tepatitlán’s attacking form and higher league position suggest they have the edge, especially given their historical dominance in this fixture.

Both teams tend to produce open, goal-filled encounters. The statistical trends support this: Alebrijes’ matches rarely end goalless, and Tepatitlán’s attacking output has been consistent throughout the season. With both sides still fighting for playoff qualification, an intense and competitive match is expected, with plenty of goal-scoring opportunities at both ends.

BetMines Prediction: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos

The most likely outcome is an Away Win (2) for Tepatitlán de Morelos with a 50% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 24%, while an Alebrijes de Oaxaca win (1) stands at 26%.