Almere City and Jong Ajax meet on Friday, September 4, in an Eerste Divisie fixture at the Yanmar Stadion. With the two clubs separated by a relatively short distance, the contest also carries the feel of a regional derby. Their starts to the season have been very different: Almere City are third and remain unbeaten after four league matches, while Jong Ajax are 14th after collecting four points from five games. The hosts enter the match with three consecutive victories, whereas the visitors have shown signs of improvement by taking four points from their latest two fixtures. Recent scoring numbers indicate that this could be an eventful encounter, but Almere City's form, league record and head-to-head advantage give them a strong platform before kick-off.

Almere City's Recent Form and Key Stats

Almere City opened their Eerste Divisie campaign with a 1-1 draw against FC Den Bosch, but their results improved immediately after that initial setback. They defeated Jong PSV 3-1, recorded a 3-0 away victory against Vitesse and then beat De Graafschap 4-1 on August 29. That sequence has left them with three wins and one draw from their opening four league matches.

The home side's season statistics underline their strong beginning. Almere City are averaging 2.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per Eerste Divisie game. Across their last five matches, their record stands at three victories, one draw and one defeat, with averages of 2.2 goals for and 1.4 against. Their current league campaign is therefore even more convincing than the broader five-match sample, particularly in terms of goals conceded.

Scoring consistency has also been a major feature of Almere City's league results. They have found the net at least once in each of their last 16 Eerste Divisie matches. The total match score has gone above 1.5 goals in their last 12 league fixtures, while at least one second-half goal has been recorded in each of their previous 16 matches in the competition. Looking beyond league games alone, 38 of Almere City's last 40 matches have featured a goal after the interval.

• Eerste Divisie position: 3rd.
• Season record: three wins, one draw and no defeats.
• Latest result: De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City.
• League scoring average: 2.8 goals per match.

Jong Ajax's Recent Form and Key Stats

Jong Ajax experienced a difficult opening to the campaign, losing each of their first three league games. They were beaten 2-1 by FC Dordrecht, lost 6-4 against FC Emmen and then suffered a 3-2 defeat against NAC Breda. Those scorelines produced plenty of goals, but no points for Jong Ajax during that opening run.

The visitors have responded more positively in their two most recent appearances. A 3-2 victory over Helmond Sport delivered their first points of the season before they drew 1-1 with Jong PSV on August 31. Their complete league record is now one win, one draw and three defeats, leaving them 14th in the Eerste Divisie.

Jong Ajax have averaged 2.2 goals scored per league match, demonstrating that they have regularly contributed in attack. However, their average of 2.8 goals conceded is higher than their scoring figure. Their last-five record matches their season record, with one win, one draw and three losses, alongside the same averages of 2.2 goals scored and 2.8 conceded.

Goals after half-time have been particularly common in their matches. At least one second-half goal has been scored in 26 of Jong Ajax's last 28 Eerste Divisie fixtures. The pattern also applies specifically to their away games, with 18 of the last 20 league trips producing at least one goal after the break. Their first-half away record offers another important detail: Jong Ajax have been behind at half-time in 11 of their last 18 away matches, both in the Eerste Divisie and across the supplied overall away sample.

• Eerste Divisie position: 14th.
• Season record: one win, one draw and three defeats.
• Latest result: Jong Ajax 1-1 Jong PSV.
• League average conceded: 2.8 goals per match.

Almere City vs Jong Ajax Match Analysis

The contrast between the teams is clear. Almere City are unbeaten in the league and have won their last three matches, scoring three or more goals in every victory. Jong Ajax, meanwhile, have avoided defeat in their latest two games but are still looking to establish consistency after beginning the season with three consecutive losses.

The supplied probabilities reinforce the expectation of a match with attacking opportunities. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 69%, while Both Teams To Score is given a 63% chance. Those figures fit the season averages: Almere City score 2.8 goals per league game, and Jong Ajax both score and concede more than two per match on average. The repeated second-half scoring trends for both clubs also suggest that the contest could remain active after the interval.

Nevertheless, the strongest difference concerns their overall results. Almere City have taken ten points from four fixtures and have yet to lose, while Jong Ajax have four points from five. The hosts are assigned a 60% win probability, compared with 20% for the draw and 20% for a Jong Ajax victory. Almere City also hold the better supplied head-to-head summary, with four wins and one defeat from five meetings, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The latest encounter finished 0-2 on March 20, 2026, showing that the historical series has not been entirely one-sided despite Almere City's overall advantage.

Jong Ajax's improved return from their last two matches gives them encouragement, especially after scoring in all five listed league fixtures. Even so, facing an Almere City side that has scored in 16 consecutive Eerste Divisie games represents a demanding assignment. Based on the unbeaten season record, three-match winning streak, stronger defensive average and positive head-to-head summary, the home side have the more convincing statistical case.

Almere City vs Jong Ajax prediction from BetMines: Almere City win (1) with 60% probability.