Almería host Burgos in La Liga 2 on October 3, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 14:15 local time at the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos. The sides arrive in strong form and occupy neighbouring places in the standings: Almería are third and Burgos fourth. The hosts have won four straight league matches, while the visitors are unbeaten in five. With both teams collecting results and scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game this season, their meeting brings together two credible promotion contenders. Almería’s home record and recent defensive run give them an advantage to build on, but Burgos have shown that they can keep finding ways to take points.

Almería’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Almería have responded to an uneven opening to the season with four consecutive victories. Their run began with a 3-2 win over Cádiz and continued with a 2-0 away victory against Córdoba, a 2-0 result against Celta B and a 1-0 away win over Mallorca on September 27. The Mallorca match extended their sequence of three straight games without conceding. Across their last five fixtures, Almería have recorded four wins and one defeat, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded.

The Córdoba result was a notable example of how Xavier García Pimienta’s side can win without controlling every attacking statistic. The home team took 20 shots to Almería’s four, yet the visitors came away with a 2-0 victory. Their overall league record stands at five wins and two defeats, with no draws. At home, they have won all three league matches described in their current campaign, adding to the case for a strong performance in this fixture.

The longer-running home figures are also striking: Almería have scored in each of their last 18 home matches in La Liga 2 and have not drawn any of those 18. They have avoided being behind at half-time in their last 19 home league games and have led at the break in the last three. Those numbers suggest that Burgos may need to withstand pressure early, although Almería’s win at Córdoba shows the hosts are not dependent on one pattern of play.

There are several contributors in attack. Javi Muñoz has two goals and two assists in four appearances, while Nico Melamed and Miguel de la Fuente have each supplied two goals and one assist. De la Fuente scored against Mallorca. Brian Cipenga has added a goal and three assists, giving Almería more than one route to creating and finishing chances.

Burgos’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Burgos travel with a five-match unbeaten run of three victories and two draws. They most recently beat Eldense 1-0 on September 27, having also defeated Las Palmas 2-1 away and Ceuta 3-1 during that sequence. Draws against Oviedo and Real Sociedad B complete the five-game run. Over those matches, Burgos have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, a return that explains why they enter this meeting just one place below Almería.

Sergio Francisco’s team have four wins, two draws and one defeat in La Liga 2 this season, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per match and conceding 1.0. Their away results cited so far comprise one win, one draw and one loss, a less consistent record than Almería’s three home victories. Even so, Burgos have avoided a half-time deficit in 20 of their last 22 La Liga 2 matches, so the hosts cannot assume an early lead will come easily.

Álex Forés and David González have each contributed three goals and one assist at the start of the season. Karrikaburu has one goal and two assists. Burgos have been effective in front of goal even in matches where opponents have taken more shots and produced similar expected-goals figures. Against an Almería side that has just kept three consecutive clean sheets, turning their chances into goals could be especially important.

Almería vs Burgos Match Analysis

These teams have comparable recent scoring averages, but their routes into the fixture differ. Almería have won four in a row, taken maximum points from their three home matches this season and stopped their opponents scoring in each of their last three games. Burgos have gone five unbeaten and possess several productive attackers, yet their away results have been mixed. That contrast makes the hosts’ home form the clearest point of separation between two sides otherwise arriving with plenty of momentum.

The head-to-head record offers little reason to expect a one-sided contest: Almería have two wins, one draw and two defeats in the five-match summary, and the latest meeting finished 0-0 on May 9, 2026. Burgos’s ability to stay competitive, including their strong half-time record, should test Almería throughout. Still, if the hosts maintain the defensive discipline shown in their recent wins while continuing their long home scoring streak, they have a sound basis for extending their winning run.

Almería vs Burgos prediction from BetMines: Almería win (1) with 56% probability.