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Prediction published on Apr 11, 2026 2:02 AM by Dario in Mexico - Liga MX | Modified on Apr 11, 2026 2:02 AM
The Liga MX continues with one of its most anticipated fixtures as América host Cruz Azul in the 14th round of the competition. The match will take place at the renovated Estadio Azteca, where the home side will look to reconnect with their fans after a mixed run of results. Both teams arrive with different dynamics but share the same goal: to strengthen their position in the upper part of the table and send a strong message to their rivals.
América currently sit sixth in the Liga MX standings, having collected 18 points from five wins, three draws, and five defeats. Their attack has been inconsistent, with only 14 goals scored so far, while defensively they have conceded 12. Despite these numbers, the team remains competitive and capable of challenging any opponent, especially at home where they have not drawn in their last 15 league matches — a sign that their games tend to produce decisive outcomes.
In their most recent outing, América drew 1-1 against Santos Laguna on April 5, a result that extended their record to two wins, one draw, and two defeats in their last five matches. During this period, they have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Over the entire season, their average rises slightly to 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, reflecting a balanced but not overly prolific side. The team’s supporters expect a reaction, especially after failing to beat the bottom-ranked team last week — a result that raised concerns about their consistency.
Given their home advantage and the historical rivalry, América will aim to impose their rhythm early, seeking to rediscover the attacking sharpness that once made them one of the most feared sides in the league. A win here would not only boost their points tally but also restore confidence among their fans.
Cruz Azul arrive in excellent shape, sitting second in the table with 27 points after eight wins, three draws, and two defeats. Their offensive power has been one of the best in the competition, with 24 goals scored — only three fewer than the league’s top scorers — while conceding 14. This balance between attack and defense has made them one of the most consistent teams this season.
However, their latest results show a slight dip in momentum. They lost 1-2 against Pachuca on April 5, and before that, suffered a heavy 0-3 defeat in the CONCACAF Champions Cup against LAFC. Despite these setbacks, their overall form remains solid: two wins, two draws, and one defeat in their last five matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Notably, Cruz Azul have scored at least one goal in each of their last 16 Liga MX matches, underlining their attacking reliability.
Another key trend is their strong second-half performance: over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half of each of their last 11 matches, and they have led at halftime in six of their last ten. These patterns suggest that Cruz Azul often start aggressively and maintain pressure throughout the game, a factor that could be decisive in a high-intensity clash like this one.
The rivalry between América and Cruz Azul is one of the most iconic in Mexican football, often producing emotional and unpredictable encounters. Their last head-to-head ended 2-1 on October 19, 2025, and the overall balance in recent meetings is perfectly even: two wins each and one draw, with both teams averaging 1.4 goals scored and conceded per match. This parity highlights just how finely balanced this fixture tends to be.
América will look to capitalize on their home advantage and the energy of their supporters, while Cruz Azul will rely on their attacking rhythm and confidence built over the season. The visitors’ ability to find the net consistently makes them a constant threat, but América’s defensive discipline could keep the game tight. Given both teams’ recent scoring trends, the match is expected to feature goals on both sides, with neither willing to settle for a draw.
Statistically, the win probabilities stand at 45% for América, 26% for a draw, and 29% for Cruz Azul. The data also shows a 51% likelihood for Both Teams To Score (Yes), and 52% for Under 2.5 total goals — suggesting a balanced contest where efficiency in front of goal will be crucial.
América vs Cruz Azul prediction by BetMines:
Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 51% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
América
Cruz Azul
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
4
6
2
8
2.5
7
3
6
4
3.5
8
2
7
3
4.5
8
2
8
2