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Prediction published on Feb 1, 2026 9:01 PM by Dario in England - Carabao Cup | Modified on Feb 1, 2026 9:01 PM
The Carabao Cup semi-final second leg promises a thrilling London derby as Arsenal and Chelsea face off at the Emirates Stadium. With Wembley just one step away, both sides will be desperate to secure their place in the final, where either Manchester City or Newcastle await. The Gunners hold a narrow 3-2 advantage from the first leg, but the tie remains finely poised, and the Blues will be eager to overturn the deficit after a spirited run of recent form.
Arsenal come into this decisive clash full of confidence after a commanding 4-0 victory over Leeds United in the Premier League. That result extended their strong run, with three wins, one draw, and just one defeat in their last five matches across all competitions. The Gunners have been prolific in attack, averaging 2.4 goals per game while conceding 1.2. Their consistency has been remarkable, having avoided defeat in 32 of their last 34 matches overall.
In the Carabao Cup, Arsenal’s record has been equally impressive. They remain unbeaten in the competition this season (W3 D1 L0), scoring an average of 2.0 goals per match and conceding just 0.8. The North London side have also shown great resilience, never trailing at half time in their last 15 home fixtures. Offensively, they have scored in 32 of their last 34 matches, and over 1.5 total goals have been recorded in each of their last 10 Carabao Cup games. These numbers underline their attacking reliability and ability to perform under pressure.
At home, Arsenal have been particularly dominant, losing only once all season at the Emirates. Their recent head-to-head record against Chelsea is also encouraging, with three wins and two draws in their last five meetings, averaging 2.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded per game. Despite a few defensive lapses in recent home outings, the Gunners’ attacking firepower continues to make them a formidable opponent.
Chelsea arrive in North London in excellent form, having won each of their last five matches in all competitions. Their latest triumph came in a thrilling 3-2 comeback victory over West Ham United, showcasing their fighting spirit and attacking depth. Over this five-game stretch, the Blues have averaged 2.4 goals scored per match while conceding just one on average, reflecting a balanced and effective approach.
In the Carabao Cup, Chelsea’s campaign has been eventful, with three wins and one defeat so far. They have been involved in high-scoring encounters, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. Away from home, their form has been particularly strong, with three consecutive victories on the road and 11 goals scored during that run. The Blues have found the net in 21 of their last 22 away fixtures, and at least one goal has been scored in the second half in 20 of those matches, highlighting their ability to stay dangerous until the final whistle.
Although Chelsea have lost their last three visits to the Emirates and failed to score in the last two, their current momentum suggests they will pose a serious threat this time. With key players like Joao Pedro and Alejandro Garnacho in fine form, the visitors have the attacking tools to challenge Arsenal’s defense and keep the tie alive until the very end.
This second leg is set up perfectly for a dramatic encounter. Arsenal will look to capitalize on their home advantage and maintain control of possession, while Chelsea are likely to rely on quick transitions and their recent attacking efficiency. Both teams have shown a tendency to produce high-scoring matches, and given their recent statistics, another open and entertaining contest is expected.
Arsenal’s attacking consistency, combined with Chelsea’s resurgence under their new manager, suggests that both sides will find opportunities to score. The Gunners have scored two or more goals in nine of their last ten home matches, while the Blues have been equally prolific on their travels. With both teams boasting strong offensive records and a place in the final at stake, this clash could deliver plenty of excitement for neutral fans and bettors alike.
Historically, Arsenal have had the upper hand in recent meetings, but Chelsea’s current form cannot be ignored. The Blues’ ability to score late and turn games around could make this a tense affair right until the final whistle. Expect intensity, goals, and moments of brilliance from both sides as they battle for a spot at Wembley.
Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 56% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Arsenal
Chelsea
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
0
10
1.5
5
5
3
7
2.5
6
4
4
6
3.5
10
0
8
2
4.5
10
0
9
1