Arsenal and Newcastle will play the first semi-final of the Carabao Cup, which will see just the first act at the Emirates Stadium, considering that, from the semi-finals onwards, the English competition also includes the return match. The two teams come to this high-impact challenge that can be defined as such precisely because both the Gunners and the Magpies have important numbers this season: for Arsenal, second place in the Premier League and a third in the Champions League; for Newcastle, the fifth consecutive success, which came just a few miles north of the Emirates, at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, violated by the Magpies in the last round of the Premier League. Arsenal are doing great at home this season but are not at the overall standards of the last two, therefore, they perpetually carry some small imperfections; Newcastle is in a golden moment but historically always struggle at the Gunners' home: elements of uncertainty for a semi-final with a great technical level that will then see the second act in February, at St James' Park.

Arsenal's shape and key stats

The 1-1 away draw against Brighton slows down the Gunners' recovery a bit, as they arrived at the Amex Stadium with a streak of 4 consecutive wins. The Gunners' run in the Carabao Cup has been perfect so far: 3 wins out of 3, against Bolton, Preston and Crystal Palace, with Arteta's team scoring 11 goals.

If, overall, this year's Arsenal have had a few less flashes than in the last two years, at home, the same cannot be said because the Gunners are unbeaten at the Emirates, where they have won 11 of the 14 games played, a truly remarkable home record.

Newcastle's shape and key stats

In North London against Tottenham, the Magpies secured their fifth consecutive victory in the Premier League, courtesy of Gordon and Isak: a success that is worth fifth place in the standings. An average of 2.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per match in this streak of games, makes Newcastle's current period even more significant, even in the Carabao Cup journey so far they have shown great things, eliminating 3 Premier League opponents such as Nottingham, Chelsea and Brentford.

In general, considering the results at the ninetieth minute, Newcastle are then unbeaten in the League Cup in the last 7 games and if they were to get to 8 it would be, at least on a historical level, a success considering the terrible recent record that the Magpies have at the Emirates against Arsenal.

Match prediction and tactical overview.

And it is precisely the statistic that says Newcastle have been defeated in 12 of their last 13 occasions at the Emirates that alarms Magpies who, despite being in great shape, are going to a pitch that has really been indigestible to them in recent years. Arsenal, on home soil this season, are doing really well, therefore BetMines assigns almost two thirds of the probability of success to the Gunners for Tuesday night's match which, especially for the home field advantage, sees the Gunners start as favourites.

• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Arsenal - Newcastle match predicts the 1 sign at 62%
• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Arsenal - Newcastle match predicts the X sign at 20%
• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Arsenal - Newcastle match predicts the 2 sign at 18%

Arsenal - Newcastle predicted lineups

Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Merino, Rice; Martinelli, Odegaard, Trossard; Gabriel Jesus. Coach: Arteta.

Newcastle (4-3-3): Dubravka; Trippier, Kelly, Burn, Hall; Longstaff, Tonali, Joelinton; Murphy, Isak, Gordon. Coach: Howe.